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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's inflation dips, remains high
by Staff Writers
Shanghai (AFP) Oct 14, 2011


China said Friday its closely watched inflation rate dipped slightly in September, but analysts said it was unlikely to ease tight credit policies on fears surging prices may cause social unrest.

The 6.1 percent year-on-year rise in the consumer price index (CPI) for September marks only a marginal slowdown from 6.2 percent in August.

Stubbornly high inflation has persisted despite government moves to rein in soaring food and housing prices, which officials fear could cause social unrest as citizens grow angry at higher costs.

Inflation peaked in July, hitting a more than three-year high of 6.5 percent, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

In August, thousands of taxi drivers went on strike in the eastern tourism hub of Hangzhou to protest high fuel costs and other grievances.

China has already implemented a number of policies over the past year to try to slow the rise in prices, including restricting the amount of money banks can lend and hiking interest rates five times since October last year.

"This confirms inflation will follow a downward trend in the fourth quarter. But in the long term, inflation will stay at high levels," Zhang Zhiwei, Hong Kong-based economist with Nomura Securities, told AFP.

The slight slowdown in inflation in September is unlikely to convince the government to radically loosen its tight credit policy, at least in the short-term, analysts said.

"Tightening of monetary policy and growth moderation have ensured that inflation is now in retreat," Alistair Thornton, China analyst at Global Economics, said in a report.

But he added: "For the moment, we remain in policy stasis -- no more tightening, but no real loosening."

The key food component of inflation rose 13.4 percent year-on-year in September, unchanged from the August level, the statistics bureau said.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said just last month that he "cannot relax" due to soaring prices in China that have led to steep rises in the cost of food, as he vowed to step up the fight against inflation.

Food prices are of particular concern, as they affect the daily lives of everyone in the country, with foodstuffs accounting for more than one-third of the monthly spending of the average Chinese consumer.

Alaistair Chan, an economist at Moody's Analytics in Sydney, said food prices could moderate in coming months -- helped by greater pork supply and a good grain harvest -- which would help lower overall inflation.

Separately, the producer price index -- a measure of inflation at the wholesale level -- rose 6.5 percent year on year in September, slowing from a 7.3 percent rise in August, the statistics bureau said.

The government had originally set a goal of 4.0 percent for overall inflation in 2011, but officials have already admitted it will be difficult to keep CPI within that target.

Nomura Securities forecasts inflation will be around 5.0 percent for all of 2011.

Chinese investors reacted negatively to Friday's announcement, sending the key Shanghai stock index down 0.67 percent in afternoon trade.

"The market is still worried about inflation since a 6.1 percent increase in CPI indicates inflation remains high," Lang Qi, an analyst at China Fortune Securities, told AFP.

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China leader 'worried' by rising trade protectionism
Beijing (AFP) Oct 14, 2011 - China's Premier Wen Jiabao on Friday took aim at what he called "rising trade protectionism", saying trade disputes were hampering a global economic recovery.

"What is worrying is that... trade protectionism is rising sharply," Wen said in a televised speech. "Trade protectionism will only slow the pace of world economic recovery."

The Chinese leader made no specific mention of the United States or other countries, but his remarks followed the US Senate earlier this week passing legislation aimed at punishing China for its alleged currency manipulation.

Some US lawmakers and officials say China's currency is undervalued, giving the country an unfair trade advantage by making its exports cheaper.

The politically sensitive US trade deficit with China rose to a record level of $29 billion in August, the US Commerce Department said Thursday. The figures are likely to fuel allegations China keeps its currency artificially weak.

Wen, who was speaking at a trade fair in the southern city of Guangzhou, said countries should be "rational" in dealing with trade disputes.

"The shadow of an international financial crisis could be removed as soon as possible... only if we properly handle international trade friction in a more rational way," he said.

Although leaders in the US House of Representatives have signalled they would block the currency bill -- meaning it will not become law -- anti-China sentiment is on the rise ahead of US elections in November 2012.

Beijing has denounced the bill as a "ticking time-bomb" that threatens to blow up trade ties between the economic superpowers, and US House Speaker John Boehner has said he would block the bill to prevent a "trade war".

China's overall trade surplus actually narrowed to $14.51 billion in September as exports slowed, hit by economic turmoil in the United States and Europe, according to official figures.

The country's exports rose 17.1 percent year-on-year to $169.7 billion, slowing from a 24.5 percent rise in August.

Worries over slowing overseas sales will prevent China from allowing its currency to appreciate more sharply, amid fears this would hurt exports, which are a major driver of economic growth, analysts said.

China defends its exchange rate regime, saying it is moving gradually to make the yuan currency more flexible.

The yuan has risen more than seven percent against the dollar since mid-2010, when Beijing relaxed a de-facto peg to the US currency, imposed in 2008 to protect its exporters during the global financial crisis.



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POLITICAL ECONOMY
IMF cuts Asia forecast, sees risks from euro crisis
Tokyo (AFP) Oct 13, 2011
The IMF lowered its forecasts for Asian growth and warned in a report Thursday that the region faces risks due to fallout from the eurozone debt crisis and a slowdown in the United States. In its twice-yearly Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund warned that risks for the region are "decidedly tilted to the downside." The IMF expects growth of 6.3 p ... read more


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