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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's growth to slow to 8.2% in 2012: World Bank
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) April 12, 2012


China's economic growth will fall to 8.2 percent this year due to slowing domestic consumption and weak external demand, before rebounding in 2013, the World Bank forecast on Thursday.

The figure represents a cut in the bank's growth forecast for China after it predicted in January that gross domestic product in the world's second biggest economy would expand 8.4 percent this year.

"The policy challenge for the near term is to sustain growth through soft landing," the bank said in its China Quarterly Update, which forecast growth of 8.6 percent next year.

"While the prospects for a soft landing remain high, there are concerns that growth slows too quickly."

China's growth slowed to 9.2 percent last year from 10.4 percent in 2010, dragged down by the global slowdown and domestic tightening aimed at controlling inflation.

Beijing has since pledged to "fine-tune" policy to prevent a hard landing for the economy, which could trigger widespread job losses and spark social unrest.

"China's gradual slowdown is expected to continue into 2012, as consumption growth slows somewhat, investment growth decelerates more pronouncedly and external demand remains weak," said Ardo Hansson, the World Bank's lead economist for China.

"The risks of overheating are moderating, increasing the prospects to achieve a soft landing."

The World Bank report forecast inflation would fall to 3.2 percent in 2012, below the government's target of around four percent.

It said reserve requirements could be tweaked further to ease the availability of credit, but "policy rate action should be reserved for potential downside scenarios."

China's central bank in February cut the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve for the second time in three months as policymakers moved to increase lending and boost domestic consumption.

The World Bank report came a day before the government is due to release key economic indicators for the first quarter of 2012 expected to show growth slowed slightly from the same period in 2011.

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China banks ramp up lending in March
Shanghai (AFP) April 12, 2012 - Chinese banks ramped up lending in March by issuing 1.01 trillion yuan ($160.3 billion) in new loans, official data showed Thursday, to offset a slowdown in the world's second largest economy.

The total was higher than the 710.7 billion yuan in new loans for February. Analysts had forecast new loans of 800 billion yuan for March, according to a poll by Dow Jones Newswires.

New lending in March rose by 332 billion yuan from the same month last year, China's central bank said in a statement.

Analysts said the jump in new lending indicated the government's aims to "fine-tune" monetary policy to keep the economy moving, which also include cutting reserve requirements for banks.

"This will help stabilise economic growth," Sun Junwei, a Beijing-based macroeconomic analyst at HSBC, told AFP. "There is still a need and room to continue to implement some easing measures."

In February, China cut the amount of money banks must keep in reserve for the second time in three months as it moved to boost lending to offset a slowdown in the economy.

The government is due to announce first quarter economic growth figures on Friday, which are expected to show that gross domestic product slowed from 8.9 expansion in the fourth quarter last year.

The World Bank said Thursday that China's economic growth will slow to 8.2 percent for 2012 due to flagging domestic consumption and weak external demand. Economic growth was 9.2 percent last year and 10.4 percent in 2010.

Separately, China's foreign exchange reserves -- the world's largest -- stood at $3.31 trillion at the end of March, the central bank said, up from $3.18 trillion at the end of 2011.

The country's foreign exchange reserves fell in the fourth quarter of 2011 from the third quarter, reflecting a worsening outlook for China's economy and expectations its currency will not appreciate as sharply, analysts said.



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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Asia to maintain growth despite global headwinds: ADB
Hong Kong (AFP) April 11, 2012
Emerging Asian economies will experience flat growth this year before recovering in 2013, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a regional report released Wednesday. The Asian Development Outlook report for 2012 said the region was shifting toward a "more sustainable long-run growth path" based on strong domestic demand instead of exports, which have been hit by wobbly Western demand. ... read more


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