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Carbon plan still leaves US short of UN pledge: study
by Staff Writers
Bonn , Germany (AFP) June 04, 2014


EU steps up call for pre-2020 action at climate talks
Bonn (AFP) June 04, 2014 - UN members launched a new round of climate talks Wednesday as Europe demands early action to tame carbon emissions, two days after the United States unveiled a longer-term plan.

"Although we are already looking beyond the current decade, it is also crucial to step up action before 2020," the European Union's climate commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, said.

The EU is on track to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in 2020 by about 24 percent over 1990 levels, more than its targeted cut of 20 percent, she said.

The "overachievement" amounts to a saving of some 5.5 billion tonnes of carbon overall, Hedegaard said.

"We are making a significant contribution to closing the 'ambition gap' between what the world needs to do and what countries intend to do by the end of this decade," she said.

"We ask other major economies to come forward with concrete ways to step up their ambition."

The 12-day session under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims at clearing some roadblocks to a post-2020 global pact on dangerous man-made carbon emissions.

The Bonn meeting -- to be attended by several dozen ministers on Thursday and Friday -- is also supposed to ramp up pledges for tackling emissions before 2020.

In March, the UN's top scientific panel warned that action in the next few years may dictate whether the target of limiting warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) will be met easily and affordably, or at greater economic pain and human cost.

Key components of post-2020 and pre-2020 action are to be fleshed out in Lima in December, preceded in September by a special summit at the UN in New York hosted by Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

On Monday, US President Barack Obama unveiled his most ambitious action yet on climate change.

He proposed ordering cuts of up to 30 percent in emissions from power plants by 2030 compared to levels in 2005.

Analysts said the proposal, if implemented, would help the United States join the EU and China in meeting pledges they made in 2010.

But, they warned, the new global deal due to be signed in Paris next year, would have to deliver much deeper cuts to meet the 2 C target.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that by 2100 the planet could be up to 4.8 C warmer and sea levels 26-82 centimetres (10-32 inches) higher.

Conflict, hunger, floods and mass displacement from coastal erosion could be the likely result, it says.

President Barack Obama's plan to cut the carbon emissions of US power plants by up to 30 percent will leave America far short of its current pledges at UN climate talks, a study said Wednesday.

The United States promised in 2010 to reduce greenhouse gases by 17 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels.

It has also set a 2050 target to further curb emissions by 83 percent compared to the 2005 benchmark.

However, specialists in Germany said in an analysis coinciding with a new round of UN climate negotiations in Bonn that Obama's plan would only reduce 2030 US national emissions to about 10 percent below 2005 levels.

"While the proposal is welcome, it is insufficient to meet the US's pledges of 17 percent reduction of all greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 and is inconsistent with its long-term target of 83 percent below 2005 level by 2050," said Niklas Hoehne of Ecofys, a German group that helped analyse the plan's impact.

The review, called the Climate Action Tracker, is updated regularly to measure whether national pledges at the long-troubled UN talks are closing in on the goal of limiting warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

It warned on Wednesday that the world "is still tracking" towards 3.0-4.6 C warming by 2100, a scenario that many scientists said could be disastrous.

Obama's proposal, called the Clean Power Plan, seeks to curb national emissions from electricity plants by a national average of 30 percent by 2030, again compared to 2005 levels.

Power plants account for about 40 percent of carbon emission by the United States, the biggest greenhouse-gas polluter after China.

But the Climate Action Tracker said the plan "is slower than the US's recent rate of decarbonisation over the last decade."

"The plan implies an economy-wide decarbonisation rate of about 0.9 percent per annum, significantly lower than the 1.4 percent per annum achieved in the last decade. This is not as fast as required for a 2 C decarbonisation pathway."

The power sector urgently needs to slash its emissions, but much of the likely reduction will be offset by increases in carbon from transport, industry and agriculture, Bill Hare of Climate Analytics told AFP.

The assessment said the United States' 2030 national emissions would be about five percent higher than 1990 levels -- the benchmark commonly used at the UN talks.

The European Union (EU) says it is on track to exceed its own target of reducing emissions by 20 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels.

The Bonn talks are the next step in a laborious process to conclude a global pact on curbing greenhouse gases by 2015, to enter into force from 2020.

The talks have been troubled by bickering over which countries should shoulder the burden of reducing emissions to safer levels.

The Climate Action Tracker said global greenhouse gas emissions will have to reach zero somewhere between 2060 and 2080 to meet the 2 C target -- even sooner for the energy and industry sectors.

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