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NUKEWARS
US, South Korea close ranks after Kim death
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Dec 19, 2011


The United States swiftly closed ranks with its ally South Korea Monday as the death of nuclear-armed North Korea's leader Kim Jong-Il landed President Barack Obama with a sudden foreign policy crisis.

Obama called his close friend President Lee Myung-Bak of South Korea at midnight on the US east coast as Washington and its regional allies digested the death of the Stalinist state's volatile 69-year-old leader.

"The president reaffirmed the United States' strong commitment to the stability of the Korean peninsula and the security of our close ally, the Republic of Korea," the White House said in a statement.

"The two leaders agreed to stay in close touch as the situation develops and agreed they would direct their national security teams to continue close coordination," the statement added.

In an earlier first reaction to Kim's death from a heart attack, announced on Pyongyang's official media, a careful White House said it was "closely monitoring" the situation in a nation with a history of belligerence.

It said Washington had been in touch with Japan, as well as South Korea.

A State Department official said Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was also briefed on Kim's death.

There was no direct word from Obama, who is locked in a domestic political showdown over taxes with Republicans.

US officials declined to be drawn into discussions of the US diplomatic or military response to Kim's death or its geopolitical implications.

They were aware that Kim had been ill, and that a political transition was under way in Pyongyang.

But privately, they have expressed concern about Kim's chosen successor, his third son Kim Jong-Un, and admit their knowledge of the isolated state's next ruler is limited.

A US lawmaker with a lead role on Asia policy was less circumspect than Obama administration officials after hearing of Kim's demise, from what the North Korean KCNA agency said was a myocardial infarction and heart attack.

"Kim Jong-Il was the epitome of evil, a dictator of the worst kind who ruled his country with an iron fist and dished out constant pain and misery to his people," said Republican Representative Don Manzullo, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on East Asia.

Former State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley warned on his Twitter feed meanwhile that uncertain days could lie ahead in northeast Asia as Kim Jong-Un "looks to prove himself".

"If North Korea were a normal country, the death of Kim Jong-Il might open the door to a Pyongyang Spring. But it is not a normal country."

Obama's White House has repeatedly stressed there is no daylight between it and its allies South Korea and Japan on policy towards North Korea.

Obama has forged one of his closest relationships with a foreign leader with Lee, partly as an overt sign to Pyongyang that there is little point seeking to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul.

Kim's death came as North Korea and the United States were making tentative efforts to restart stalled six-nation talks on the North's nuclear program.

Nuclear envoys from Washington and Pyongyang met in New York in July and in Geneva in October, but reported no breakthrough. South Korea's Yonhap news agency said that a third meeting could have taken place soon.

Obama warned North Korea in October that it would face deeper isolation and international pressure if it carried out more "provocations" like those that rattled Asia last year.

But as he met Lee at the White House, the US leader said Pyongyang could however expect greater opportunities if it lived up to its international obligations over its nuclear program.

The North quit the six-party forum, which involves the United States, China, the two Koreas, Japan and Russia, in April 2009, a month before staging its second nuclear test.

The North wants the forum to resume without preconditions and says its uranium enrichment program -- first disclosed to visiting US experts one year ago -- can be discussed at the talks.

North Korea, which has never signed a peace treaty with the United States following the 1950-53 Korean war has been a frequent foreign policy headache for successive US administrations.

Pyongyang has sought to rest concessions from Washington, and repeatedly reneged on agreements, like the 1994 Agreed Framework, designed to limit the development of its bristling nuclear threat.

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Scenarios as North Korea faces succession challenge
Seoul (AFP) Dec 19, 2011 - The shock announcement Monday of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il's death has raised fears of turbulence in the nuclear-armed nation which has been plunged into a second dynastic succession.

Kim's youngest son Kim Jong-Un has been declared in state media as the nation's next leader but little is known about him or his path to power.

Following are some scenarios of how events might unfold.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?

Kim Jong-Il's body is to lie in state in Kumsusan palace where the embalmed body of his father -- Kim Il-Sung, the founder and "eternal leader" of North Korea who died in 1994 -- is on display.

After Kim's funeral on December 28, thoughts will turn to the succession but there are few details as to how it will be carried out. Kim Jong-Un's status as heir apparent was only made clear in September 2010.

Even Kim Jong-Il, who was openly groomed for the leadership and designated as successor some 14 years before his own father died, did not formally take over the leadership of the ruling party for three years afterwards.

WHO IS IN CHARGE?

The workings of the North Korean leadership -- which managed to keep the leader's death a secret for two days -- are notoriously opaque.

But all the signs so far are that Kim Jong-Un is being installed as the nation's new leader under the guidance of his aunt and uncle who will act as his mentors and as a backstop for a young man with no power base of his own.

Jang Song-Thaek, husband of Kim Jong-Il's only sibling Kim Kyong-Hui, expanded his influence rapidly after the leader suffered a stroke in 2008, forcing the succession plans to be accelerated.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

North Korea has a track record of erratic and aggressive behaviour which has alarmed its neighbours and the international community.

Some observers are fearful that the young leader, who has little public profile and no military experience despite being made a four-star general last year, may show his mettle with nuclear tests or military provocations.

Relations with South Korea have been icy since two deadly border incidents blamed on the North last year, which were rumoured to be linked to a show of force by Kim as he tried to ensure his son's succession.

COULD NORTH KOREA IMPLODE?

Many experts believe that North Korea's elites have a powerful vested interest in maintaining the status quo, and that they are not likely to rock the boat unless they have to.

Analysts say turbulence is unlikely, at least in the short term. However, if Kim Jong-Un fails and a messy power struggle ensues, North Korea heads into uncharted territory.

In the meantime, the new leader, who comes into the job with a host of challenges including severe food shortages in a nation which has seen famine in the past, is not expected to adopt an ambitious agenda.

WHY DOES NORTH KOREA MATTER?

North Korea is a formidable enemy, with some 1.19 million men under arms, as well as an arsenal of chemical and conventional weapons including thousands of short- and medium-range missiles.

It has also test-launched Taepodong missiles in its quest for an intercontinental ballistic missile that could potentially strike the United States.

Most estimates say the North has enough plutonium to build six to eight atomic weapons, but it is unclear whether it can make nuclear warheads for its missiles.

Efforts to denuclearise North Korea through six-nation talks including the US and China have dominated regional diplomacy in recent years.



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NUKEWARS
N. Korea 'agrees to suspend uranium enrichment'
Seoul (AFP) Dec 17, 2011
North Korea has agreed to suspend its enriched-uranium nuclear weapons programme, a key United States demand for the resumption of disarmament talks, news reports said Saturday. Yonhap news agency and the Chosun Ilbo daily quoted an unidentified diplomatic source saying the Washington had also agreed to provide the North with up to 240,000 tonnes of food aid. Pyongyang pledged "to implem ... read more


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