Referendum on Irish unification? A distant and contentious prospect
By Anna CUENCA
Belfast (AFP) March 31, 2023

The 1998 peace deal in Northern Ireland, which largely ended three decades of violence, provides for the possibility of an all-Ireland vote on unification, often referred to as a border poll.

But a quarter century on, such a scenario still looks remote and remains controversial.

- What does the accord stipulate? -

Under the Good Friday Agreement, the UK and Irish governments "recognise the legitimacy of whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland" over its status.

It could be a continued "union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland," the deal adds.

The late 1990s pact also notes that "the present wish of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland" is to remain part of the UK.

It goes on to say that "if in the future, the people of the island of Ireland exercise their right of self-determination... to bring about a united Ireland", both governments are obliged to legislate "to give effect to that wish".

The British province would be integrated into the Republic of Ireland -- a European Union member -- if its population also consents to the constitutional change in its own referendum.

- What do referendum backers say? -

Queen's University Belfast law professor Colin Harvey -- a board member of Ireland's Future, which campaigns for "new constitutional arrangements on the island" -- admits the conditions have not yet been met for a poll.

"Not tomorrow... not even next year," he tells AFP.

But he argues it will happen, "perhaps in the next decade or 15 years".

Harvey is busy producing policy documents and papers to map out a way forward to ensure a "stable, responsible transition".

He concedes such a vote will divide the population, but notes "democracy is divisive" by its nature.

"We would be dishonouring their memory if we avoided this discussion about the constitutional future," he adds of the "courageous peacemakers" behind the accords.

"We should face into that, as difficult as it may be."

- The opponents' view? -

Some on the island push back against the very idea of holding a so-called border poll.

"There is no basis to call it," says Trevor Ringland, a Belfast-born former Ireland rugby player and now a lawyer who works to build bridges across sectarian lines.

The son of a Northern Irish policeman, he notes the province used to be "one of the most dangerous places in the world" to have such a job.

He believes a referendum would be "a setback", arguing economic progress and social changes over the past 25 years have reshaped Northern Ireland.

Its young people now define themselves less by religion and mix more with different communities, according to Ringland.

"Demographics are far more complex than being simply divided by one religion or another, or by one simple identity -- I'm British and I'm also very much Irish," he says.

"We have a real opportunity here to make sure what happened never happens again."

The Good Friday Agreement explained
London (AFP) March 31, 2023 - Northern Ireland next month marks the 25th anniversary of peace accords which have helped transform the UK province.

The 1998 Good Friday Agreement brought an end to more than 30 years of conflict over British rule.

- Declaration of support -

The landmark agreement, also called the Belfast Agreement, was signed on April 10, 1998 between the then-prime ministers of Britain and Ireland, Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern.

Eight political parties or groupings also signed the document, stating in the text that it was a "truly historic opportunity for a new beginning".

US president Bill Clinton sent senator George Mitchell to chair the talks.

Three decades of violence between mostly Catholic republicans on one side and mainly Protestant unionists on the other had left a "deep and profoundly regrettable legacy of suffering".

"We must never forget those who have died or been injured, and their families," they wrote.

"But we can best honour them through a fresh start, in which we firmly dedicate ourselves to the achievement of reconciliation, tolerance, and mutual trust, and to the protection and vindication of the human rights of all."

The declaration committed participants to "partnership, equality and mutual respect as the basis of relationships" and "exclusively democratic and peaceful means".

- The border -

The agreement has little specific to say about border arrangements between Northern Ireland and Ireland -- an issue that has come to the fore since Brexit.

The text promised to develop "normalisation of security arrangements and practices", including the "removal of security installations" and "other measures appropriate to and compatible with a normal peaceful society".

This created an invisible border between north and south, satisfying republicans who wanted a united Ireland, and unionists who wished Northern Ireland to stay British.

This did not pose problems when both Ireland and the UK were in the EU.

But with Britain now out, it is proving more problematic, both practically in terms of enforcing EU and UK customs rules and, as many have pointed out, psychologically.

The prospect of any return of a hard border has been seen as a violation of those Good Friday Agreement obligations.

Residents living on both sides of the border say any physical infrastructure on the frontier would reintroduce an actual divide -- and potentially fuel fresh violence.

- Disarming -

Signatories reaffirmed their commitment to the total disarmament of all paramilitary organisations.

They also confirmed their intention to achieve the decommissioning of all paramilitary arms within two years.

A new human rights commission and equality commission were charged with ensuring respect for religious and cultural preferences.

- Constitutional issues -

The negotiators recognised "the legitimacy of whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland", including their freedom to choose union with Britain or Ireland.

In addition, they recognised that a majority favoured British rule and declared that Northern Ireland would remain part of Britain.

If this majority wish were to change, as indicated in a referendum, London agreed to enact legislation to allow Northern Ireland to become part of Ireland.

For this purpose, London and Ireland both revoked their constitutional claim to sole sovereignty over Northern Ireland.

- Democratic institutions -

The agreement provided for an elected 108-member assembly in Belfast, with responsibility for finance, economic development, health, education, welfare, environment and agriculture. Other responsibilities would remain with London.

The assembly would be led by a first minister and deputy first minister with a power-sharing balance between unionists and nationalists.

If both positions are not occupied, the executive cannot function -- as has happened for the last year after pro-UK unionists walked out over their opposition to post-Brexit trade arrangements.

The agreement also set up a North/South Ministerial Council, bringing together assembly members and their counterparts in Dublin on issues of "mutual interest".

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