Historically, flood risk assessments have relied heavily on local historical data, using the worst floods of past decades or centuries as a benchmark for future events. However, this method has shown limitations, as evidenced by the unexpected magnitude of recent mega-floods, including the devastating 2021 flood disaster in Germany and Belgium, which claimed over 220 lives.
Prof. Gunter Bloschl from the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management at TU Wien, who spearheaded the research, explains that while minor and major floods can be predicted with a degree of accuracy using regional data, the extent of mega-floods often eludes such localized analyses. "Predicting the extent of such mega-floods is very difficult," Prof. Bloschl admits, highlighting the inherent challenge in preparing for such extraordinary events.
Dr. Miriam Bertola, the lead author of the study, emphasizes the breakthrough in their research approach. By analyzing over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe, spanning from 1810 to 2021, the team discovered that considering data from river basins with similar climatic and hydrological characteristics across the continent can significantly improve the predictability of mega-floods. "In each river basin, we can learn from other areas that have similar climatic and hydrological characteristics where mega-floods may have already occurred," she states.
The research demonstrates that mega-floods, which often appear as statistical outliers at a local scale, can be anticipated when viewed from a continental perspective. This approach not only provides a broader understanding of flood patterns but also integrates international data, transcending national boundaries in flood-risk assessment.
Prof. Bloschl emphasizes the need for an international perspective in flood prevention. He advocates for moving beyond national flood-risk assessment and sharing information on mega-floods across countries and continents. This global approach is essential in reducing the surprise factor of mega-flood occurrences and, more importantly, in saving lives.
The study represents a significant shift in how flood risks are evaluated and managed. It underscores the need for international cooperation and data sharing in understanding and preparing for extreme weather events. As climate change continues to impact weather patterns globally, the ability to anticipate and prepare for such events becomes increasingly crucial.
In conclusion, the TU Wien-led research marks a paradigm shift in flood risk assessment. By leveraging continental data and fostering international collaboration, it paves the way for more effective flood preparedness and management strategies, potentially mitigating the impact of future mega-floods and safeguarding communities worldwide.
Research Report:Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments
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