If completed, that means Taiwan would be recognised by just 13 nations, marking the latest victory in Beijing's long-running campaign to isolate the island on the world stage.
- Why does recognition matter to Beijing? -
At the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, Mao Zedong's communist forces successfully pushed out Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists, who relocated to Taiwan.
The island has been self-ruled since, but Beijing considers it a part of its territory, to be taken one day, by force if necessary.
China also bristles at any attempt to treat the island as an independent nation-state. Under its "One China" principle, no country may maintain official diplomatic relations with both China and Taiwan.
Taiwan maintains a similar policy, cutting ties with countries that recognise Beijing over Taipei.
- Why has pressure grown on Taiwan? -
During the eight years in which Beijing-friendly Ma Ying-jeou was president of Taiwan, the island lost diplomatic recognition from just one country.
But relations plunged in 2016 with the election of his successor Tsai Ing-wen.
She enraged China by espousing a position that Taiwan is an "already independent" sovereign nation that is not subordinate to Beijing.
China has since ramped up diplomatic and military pressure on the island, with eight nations ditching Taipei to recognise Beijing. Honduras would be the ninth.
- How has China wooed Taiwan's allies? -
China has used economic leverage to poach several of Taiwan's erstwhile allies in recent years, especially in Latin America.
The imminent switch by Honduras came weeks after the Latin American nation's government announced it was negotiating with China to build a major hydroelectric dam.
What China offers countries is, however, much more than just infrastructure investment, analysts say.
"China represents one of the largest markets in the world and it is growing and expanding," said Henry Rodriguez, head of the economics department at the National Autonomous University of Honduras.
"Taiwan has been a partner to Honduras for many years, they supported us, but people say the support they give us is not very significant because it is capped at $50 million a year and that China will be able to give us more support."
- Does Taiwan have any powerful friends? -
Despite switching diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979, Washington remains Taiwan's main ally.
The United States has pursued a policy where it "acknowledges" China's claim to the island, which is not the same as accepting Beijing's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan.
It opposes both Taiwanese independence and any attempt by China to forcibly take the island. It also maintains trade ties with Taiwan and is its biggest arms supplier.
Taiwan also has deep trade links with Europe and other parts of the world, thanks in particular to its dominance in the production of semiconductors, whose supply is critical to the global economy.
And the United States may step in to help stop Honduras from going through with its switch to Beijing, analysts said.
"Washington has long considered Central America within its sphere of influence and is loath to welcome any additional Chinese influence in the region," said Gary Sands, a former US diplomat and analyst at geostrategic consultancy Wikistrat.
"So to some extent, the US, as Honduras's most important economic partner, could provide economic incentives to Tegucigalpa and/or apply diplomatic pressure."
- How does loss of recognition impact Taiwan? -
Despite the dwindling pool of nations that recognise it, Taiwan would not be considered internationally isolated even if that number fell to zero, said analysts.
"Strong, multifaceted ties with influential economies and democracies are better at solidifying Taiwan's international presence than official ties with relatively small states," said J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based adviser at the International Republican Institute.
"The officials and NGOs in Taiwan have been very active in managing relationships with international partners through non-official channels," said Lo Li-chia, a political analyst at the University of Canberra.
"This part would not go away even if Taiwan has zero international recognition."
Former Taiwan officials indicted in China spying case
Taipei (AFP) March 16, 2023 -
A retired Taiwan navy officer and a former member of the country's parliament were charged on Thursday over an alleged bid to build a spy network for China.
Hsia Fu-hsiang, who was deputy head of the navy's political warfare department, and former legislator Lo Chih-ming had "provided Chinese intelligence personnel with opportunities to contact and even recruit our retired generals in their actions to develop a network for Chinese organisations", the Kaohsiung district prosecutor's office said.
The two were involved since 2013 with Chinese organisations that work on "promoting (Taiwan's) unification with China" by recruiting the retired generals, it added.
China claims self-ruled, democratic Taiwan as part of its territory to be seized one day, by force if necessary.
The two sides have been spying on each other since splitting after a civil war between Chinese nationalists and communists in 1949.
Hsia and Lo had reached out to at least 48 high-ranking retired military officers and arranged 13 paid trips for them, prosecutors said, warning other retired officers against acting on Beijing's behalf.
"We urge retired military officers to exercise caution regarding unreasonable benefits when they go to events in China to avoid falling into the traps" of Beijing, prosecutors said.
The two men were detained in January and remain in custody, facing up to five years in prison if found guilty.
The case surfaced shortly after prosecutors launched an investigation into a retired air force colonel who was suspected of recruiting at least six active-duty officers in Taiwan's air force and navy over eight years on behalf of Beijing.
A number of former high-ranking Taiwan military officials have in recent years been accused of developing spying networks for China.
In January, a retired air force major general received a four-year suspended sentence for accepting meals and trips offered by a Hong Kong businessman allegedly acting on behalf of Beijing, after the court said he showed remorse and had no previous criminal record.
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