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OIL AND GAS
Oil prices move lower after hitting 'soft ceiling'
by Daniel J. Graeber
New York (UPI) Jun 30, 2016


Crude oil rally continues on supply, demand pressures
New York (UPI) Jun 29, 2016 - Crude oil prices rebounded for a second straight day on word of a possible labor strike for Norwegian oil workers and steady demand in the United States.

Crude oil prices collapsed, along with global stock markets, on Friday when it emerged that the European Union would evolve without the United Kingdom. Speaking from London, British Energy and Climate Change Secretary Amber Rudd said the British economy faces a long period of uncertainty as it divorces from the EU.

"There have been significant advantages to us trading energy both within Europe and being an entry point into Europe from the rest of the world," she said in a statement.

Overseas, a slight uptick in the revision for first quarter growth in the United States helped lift crude oil prices higher during the Tuesday session. Data published late Tuesday from the American Petroleum Institute show crude oil inventories shrank by 3.9 million barrels in an indication the U.S. economy was taking advantage of lower fuel prices.

Lackluster demand last year helped add support to sustained losses in crude oil prices. The price for Brent crude oil was up 0.8 percent in early Wednesday trading to start the day at $49.00 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, was up 1 percent to open at $48.34 per barrel.

Supply-side pressures helped lift crude oil prices close to the $50 mark as wildfires in Canada and militant threats in Nigeria curbed production in May and in early June. About 2 percent of the world's total oil production may be at stake unless wage concessions are brokered for Norwegian oil and gas workers before Friday, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Some of the rally may be in response to bargain hunting in the wake of the two-day market collapse that followed the British referendum. Data from the U.S. Commerce Department show personal income and disposable personal income increased each by 0.2 percent in May. That's the second-lowest level for a monthly increase this year and is 0.3 percent lower than for April.

While employment prospects in the United States remain robust, wage growth has been noticeably absent.

Crude oil prices reversed course in Thursday trading with an investment bank saying the $50 mark may be something of a "soft ceiling" for the long term.

Crude oil prices collapsed from around $100 per barrel in 2014 to below $30 per barrel earlier this year. Prices started recovering toward $50 per barrel over recent months as moderate global economic recovery and lower retail fuel prices eroded some of the oversupply that sparked the downturn.

Short-term positive pressure surfaced in May because of outages sparked by wildfires in Canada and militant activity in Nigeria, among the largest oil producers in the world. A medium-term report from ING in Amsterdam said that, apart from these outages, spending on exploration and production remains low, Iran is recovering from the sanctions era faster than expected and oil inventories, despite recent draws, are still near seasonal highs.

"ING believes prices are now at a soft ceiling and will face headwinds not just in the short term, but also the long term," the report read.

Oil prices collapsed in the two sessions that followed the British vote to leave the European Union. Prices rebounded Wednesday after U.S. data showed a decline in oil inventories, only to retreat again by the start of trading Thursday in New York.

The price for Brent crude oil moved lower by 1.7 percent to open at $49.77 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, was down 2.4 percent to start the day at $48.69 per barrel.

The situation may reverse late in the week depending on the outcome of labor negotiations with Norwegian oil and gas workers. Mediators said that, if talks fail, about 6 percent of the daily oil and gas production from Norway, one of the lead suppliers to the European economy, may be idled. Nevertheless, that's about half what was expected by mediators earlier this week.

Jan Hodneland, the lead negotiator for Norwegian Oil and Gas, said industry leaders should negotiate with efficiency in mind.

"We believe the industry must adapt to a lasting lower level of costs while improving its competitiveness in order to preserve as many jobs as possible," he said in a statement.

On the economic front, European leaders said in introducing their draft budget for 2017 that the focus was on supporting recovery and buffering against security and humanitarian challenges in the region.

"The EU is facing massive challenges and in these difficult times a focused and effective EU budget is not a luxury but a necessity," European Commission Vice President Kristalina Georgieva said.


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