In its annual threat assessment, the Norwegian Intelligence Service said that "from Moscow's perspective, Svalbard's strategic location makes it necessary to maintain a Russian presence there".
The second-largest town on Svalbard, the coal mining settlement of Barentsburg, is almost entirely populated by Russian nationals.
"There are signs that the Kremlin is looking to make the Barentsburg settlement less dependent on Norwegian supply and transport infrastructure
"Regular port visits by ships from Russia constitute one planned step in this direction," the agency said.
It said Beijing was "also expected to work towards enhancing the Chinese presence in Svalbard".
"The archipelago is strategically placed for future shipping routes and polar research, which are central to cementing China's role as an Arctic actor," it said in its report.
It noted that China's presence was becoming more visible in the Arctic and that five Chinese research vessels had operated in the Arctic Ocean in 2025, compared to three in 2024 and one in previous years.
The service also noted that tensions between the United States and Europe over Greenland and security in the Arctic "could serve both Russian and Chinese interests."
- 'Crumbling' world order -
Andreas Stensones, head of the service, said in the report that Moscow and Beijing stood to benefit as "international cooperation and institutions are being undermined".
"The same dynamic is evident in the Arctic. Much of the foundation for Norwegian security is being challenged and we must accept that the world order as we have known it is crumbling," Stensones said.
Speaking at a press conference, Norwegian Defence Minister Tore Sandvik noted: "2026 has so far been characterised by great uncertainty."
He pointed in particular to US President Donald Trump's vocally stated desire to take over Greenland.
Trump's threats against Greenland last month plunged NATO -- of which Norway is a member -- into its deepest crisis in years.
"There is no denying that relations across the Atlantic are more unpredictable," Sandvik said.
Stensones told the same press conference that Washington's actions affected how both Moscow and Beijing were thinking and acting.
"In their view, western unity has already begun to crack, and they see great opportunities to strengthen their influence and secure control in their neighbouring areas," he told reporters.
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