The latest conflict and the deployment of Turkish troops in northern Iraq created problems for everyone.

Turkish generals are complaining that they have not been able to defeat the Kurdistan Workers Party's guerrillas and destroy their bases in Iraqi Kurdistan for a long time because they have been fighting with their hands tied. The insurgents were able to retreat to their bases every time a full-blown military operation got underway.

Ankara wants to deal a crushing blow against the militants and their bases outside Turkey in the course of large-scale operations.

However, it will not be able to pacify Iraqi Kurdistan for a long time because a guerrilla war will flare up there. Although the Turkish army will quickly defeat all units of the Kurdistan Workers Party and those of the Kurdistan Democratic Party trying to support the Turkish Kurds, it will not stay in northern Iraq for a long time.

Five years ago I visited the border between Iraqi and Turkish Kurdistan, and Turkish forces were able to defeat Kurdish units, but relations between Ankara and the Iraqi Kurds would be soured. Although the military operation would appease the Turkish, it would produce no long-term results.

Although Iraqi Kurdistan is virtually independent, the European Union, which is still reluctant to admit Turkey, would perceive the current hostilities as an aggression against Baghdad.

Technically speaking, Iraqi Kurdistan remains part of Iraq, a UN member; consequently, the EU will condemn the Turkish aggression and create additional roadblocks for Ankara's accession.

The United States will also face serious problems if Ankara conducts a large-scale military operation because it cannot betray the Iraqi Kurds, its only loyal and staunch allies in war-torn Iraq.

It is common knowledge that the Iraqi Kurds were looking forward to the U.S. invasion in 2003 because they knew that Washington would topple the Saddam Hussein regime.

Consequently, the White House would face dire prospects if it turns a blind eye to possible Turkish atrocities against the Iraqi Kurds. But Turkey, a NATO member, is an equally important U.S. ally.

The United States could do something to protect the Iraqi Kurds in case of a military operation, but that the situation would deteriorate if the Kurdistan Democratic Party joined in the conflict.

Although there are no U.S. forces in Iraqi Kurdistan, it is difficult to imagine the consequences of a possible clash between them and the Turkish army.

The United States could find itself between two fires and face a serious dilemma. The Turkish government realizes that Washington will never forgive Ankara if it forces America to choose between the lesser of two evils.

The Turkish invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan would be branded as an aggression against sovereign Iraq, and that the Iraqi army would strike back. However, such operations would not be very effective because Baghdad still lacks the military potential for combating terrorism in other parts of the country.

The Kurdistan Workers Party would be the only one to profit from the Turkish military operation because surviving militants would regroup in mountain areas. These extremists are ready to sustain losses in a protracted war for the sake of seceding from Turkey and establishing an independent state.

Consequently, the Turkish occupation of Iraqi Kurdistan would meet their interests because everyone would condemn Ankara's aggression and because the Kurdistan Democratic Party would support the Turkish Kurds.

Georgy Mirsky, Ph.D., is a senior research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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