Space Industry and Business News  
SHAKE AND BLOW
New study estimates frequency of flight-disrupting volcanic eruptions
by Staff Writers
Leeds UK (SPX) Jan 04, 2017


Volcanic ash shard is shown. Image courtesy University of Leeds. For a larger version of this image please go here.

Holidaymakers concerned about fresh volcanic eruptions causing flight-disrupting ash clouds across Northern Europe might be reassured by a study setting out the first reliable estimates of their frequency.

While the University of Leeds-led research suggests that ash clouds are more common over northern Europe than previously thought, it puts the average gap between them at about 44 years.

It also reveals that these types of ash clouds have about a 20 per cent chance of occurring in Northern Europe in any one decade.

Lead author Dr Liz Watson, from the School of Geography at Leeds, said: "Reliable estimates of the frequency of volcanic ash events could help airlines, insurance companies and the travelling public mitigate the economic losses and disruption caused by ash clouds in the future."

The work began soon after 2010's explosive eruption of Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajokull, which caused more than 10 million air passengers to be stranded and cost the European economy an estimated Pounds 4 billion.

A team of researchers, which included academics from the universities of St Andrews and South Florida, compared records of volcanic ash fallout (also known as tephra) during the last 1,000 years.

Focusing on northern Europe - downwind of one of the world's most active volcanic regions, Iceland - they examined samples taken from peatlands and lake beds in mainland norther Europe, Great Britain, Ireland and the Faroe Islands, alongside previously existing samples taken from other sites across Northern Europe.

The samples - cores up to seven metres long - were taken from peat and lake sediment where geological records are particularly well preserved.

Using electron microscopy and chemical analysis, the team identified tiny shards of preserved volcanic ash, called cryptotephra - about the width of a human hair - which enabled them to pinpoint at what point volcanic ash clouds had spread across the continent.

For many of the occurrences, the researchers were also able to match sample data to historical records or to existing geological data which charted specific eruptions.

The work found evidence of 84 ash clouds during the last 7,000 years, most of which could be traced to eruptions from Icelandic volcanoes. More incidences of volcanic ash are recorded over the past 1,000 years, because evidence is better preserved and historical records are more complete, leading the team to estimate an average recurrence of 44 years.

Co-author Dr Graeme Swindles is Associate Professor of Earth System Dynamics in the School of Earth and Environment at Leeds. He said: "In 2010, when Eyjafjallajokull erupted, people were really shocked - it seemed to come completely out of the blue, but the eruption of Grimsvotn, the following year, was an extraordinary coincidence.

"Although it is possible that ash clouds can occur on an annual basis, the average return interval for the last 1,000 years is around 44 years.

"The last time volcanic ash clouds affected Northern Europe before the recent event was in 1947, 69 years ago - but aviation was much less intense at that time and it simply didn't have the same sort of impact.

"Our research shows that, over thousands of years, these sorts of incidents are not that rare - but people wondering how likely it is that the 2010 chaos will be repeated in the next few years can feel somewhat reassured."

The researchers also looked at the intensity of the eruptions responsible for producing volcanic ash clouds. They found that volcanic activity likely to produce ashfall in Northern Europe would typically measure four or above on the internationally-recognised Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI).

"Eruptions can't always be indexed rapidly," explained co-author Dr Ivan Savov, also of Leeds' School of Earth and Environment. "But in cases where that calculation can be made early on, it will give a good indication of the likelihood of volcanic ash causing a major problem."

"The 2010 eruption cost billions in terms of lost revenues and there was an effect on the global economy, so the work we've been able to do to quantify the risk will be of interest to insurance companies trying to make sense of the potential for future air traffic disruptions."

The research paper, "Estimating the frequency of volcanic ash clouds over northern Europe", is published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters.


Comment on this article using your Disqus, Facebook, Google or Twitter login.


Thanks for being here;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5 Billed Monthly


paypal only


.


Related Links
University of Leeds
Bringing Order To A World Of Disasters
When the Earth Quakes
A world of storm and tempest






Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

Previous Report
SHAKE AND BLOW
Clues from past volcanic explosion help Manchester-led team model future activity
Manchester, UK (SPX) Dec 22, 2016
Researchers led by The University of Manchester have developed a model that will help civil defence agencies better judge the impact of future volcanic eruptions - including those that threaten the UK population. Mike Burton, Professor of Volcanology at Manchester's School of Earth and Environmental Science, has led a team of experts that has analysed the legacy of a powerful volcanic erup ... read more


SHAKE AND BLOW
Scientists create tiny laser using silver nanoparticles

Divide and conquer pattern searching

Scientists hope to make concrete tougher by studying its defects

The hidden inferno inside your laser pointer

SHAKE AND BLOW
U.S. Navy selects Raytheon for tactical radio production

Underwater radio, anyone?

Japan to Launch First Military Communications Satellite on January 24

Intelsat General to provide satellite services to RiteNet for US Army network

SHAKE AND BLOW
Russia to face strong competition from China in space launch market

Vega And Gokturk-1A are present for next Arianespace lightweight mission

Antares Rides Again

Four Galileo satellites are "topped off" for Arianespace's milestone Ariane 5 launch from the Spaceport

SHAKE AND BLOW
Austrian cows swap bells from 'hell' for GPS

Russia, China Making Progress in Synchronization of GLONASS, BeiDou Systems

Alpha Defence Company To Make Navigation Satellites For ISRO

Europe's own satnav Galileo goes live

SHAKE AND BLOW
Main black box of crashed Russian plane found in Black Sea

South Korea deploys AH-64E Apache helicopters for training

U.S. State Dept. approves JDAM kit sale to Kuwait

Lockheed Martin contracted for PAC-3 production for Qatar

SHAKE AND BLOW
ONR global seeks more powerful electronic devices

Electron-photon small-talk could have big impact on quantum computing

An invisible electrode

World's smallest radio receiver has building blocks the size of 2 atoms

SHAKE AND BLOW
Switzerland sees driest December in 150 years

Lockheed Martin Completes Assembly of NOAA's GOES-S Weather Satellite

China launches new weather satellite Fengyun-4

exactEarth to study Small Vessel Tracking for UK Space Agency

SHAKE AND BLOW
Madrid lifts partial car ban as pollution eases

Obama criticized after monument designation

Beijing starts 2017 under a cloud

In Spain first, Madrid bans half of cars to fight smog









The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.