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CLIMATE SCIENCE
New World Bank fund to insure against climate disasters
by Staff Writers
Nusa Dua, Indonesia (AFP) Oct 12, 2018

Global warming boosts century-to-century variability, study finds
Washington (UPI) Oct 12, 2018 - As Earth gets hotter, century-to-century climate variability increases, according to a new study.

When scientists compared the century-scale climate variability during the last interglacial period, between 130,000 and 115,000 years ago, with variability during the last 11,700 years, they found a significant correlation between warming and variability.

During the last interglacial, or Eemian stage, the planet experienced significant Arctic warming. The average global temperature was between 3 and 11 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average.

In other words, Earth was about as warm as climate scientists expect the planet to get by the end of the century -- should global warming continue unabated.

Earth not only experienced higher temperatures during the last interglacial period; the planet also experienced century-scale climate patterns, including arid events in southern Europe and cold water-mass expansions across the North Atlantic.

Several previous studies have detailed dramatic climatic changes during the last interglacial period. One survey of coral fossils showed sea levels rose as much as 20 feet.

Most previous analyses of climatic shifts in the last interglacial relied on localized evidence. For the new study, scientists compiled a comprehensive survey of relative geologic evidence from around the world. Researchers coupled the evidence with advanced climate models to created a detailed timeline of ocean and atmospheric changes during the period.

To normalize evidence from different environments, scientists created a key of sorts by comparing different fossils collected from the same sediment cores in Portugal.

"The marine core also contained pollen transported from the Tagus river into the deep sea, thus enabling a direct comparison of vegetation and North Atlantic ocean changes," Vasiliki Margari, a geographer at University College London, said in a news release.

Scientists also compared precipitation shifts revealed by changes in vegetation with those demonstrated by stalagmites in the Corchia Cave in northern Italy.

"The Corchia record is particularly important because it is supported by very detailed radiometric dating using the decay of uranium isotopes, producing one of the best chronologies for this period available," said UCL researcher Russell Drysdale.

Scientists found agreement between their datasets and climate simulations, which found warming during the period likely disrupted the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, in turn increasing century-scale climate variability.

Researchers published their findings Friday in the journal Nature Communications.

"Although not a strict analogue for future anthropogenically-driven changes, the profile of the last interglacial that emerges is one of enhanced century-scale climate instability, with implications for ice-sheet and ocean dynamics," said Andrea Taschetto of the University of New South Wales. "Future research efforts should focus on constraining further the extent of melting and runoff from the Greenland ice-sheet and its effects on ocean circulation during the last interglacial."

The World Bank on Friday launched a new $150 million fund intended to help insure vulnerable countries against natural disasters and the increasing risk of climate change-linked crises.

The announcement follows a string of recent natural disasters across the world including record storms and a series of deadly quakes in Indonesia, where the Bank and International Monetary Fund are currently meeting.

The so-called Global Risk Financing Facility (GRiF), set up with money from Germany and Britain, will finance the creation of disaster insurance and other risk mechanisms so funds are available immediately when crises hit.

"What we are seeking to do... is to change the whole system so countries can rely on funding when necessary that's reliable, that's adequate, that's rapid," said Matthew Rycroft, permanent secretary for Britain's Department for International Development.

"If they combine that with national systems that work well, it can have a very significant benefit," he added at a panel announcing the fund.

The World Bank and other international institutions already have several mechanisms in place to help nations adapt to the risk of a changing environment.

But the new fund is intended to bolster those programmes as the effects of climate change intensify.

"It's too little, but it's not too late, we really need to build the momentum... change fundamentally the way we do our investment," said Laura Tuck, the World Bank's vice president for sustainable development.

Last week, experts warned of global climate chaos unless societies undertake unprecedented changes to prevent further climate warming.

Humanitarians see surge in climate-related disasters
Geneva (AFP) Oct 12, 2018 - The number of climate-related disasters around the world is growing rapidly, humanitarians warned Friday, urging more efforts to prepare and build resilience to looming changes on a warming planet.

Climate shocks are already driving displacement, causing many to go hungry and are sparking or exacerbating conflicts around the globe, humanitarian workers said, cautioning that the situation is quickly deteriorating.

"With climate change, the shocks and hazards are multiplying," Elhadj As Sy, Secretary-General of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), told AFP in an interview.

Speaking on the sidelines of a conference in Geneva on the impact of climate change on humanitarian situations around the globe, he cautioned that such "shocks" were "getting more frequent and more severe."

Friday's conference was aimed at unpacking the humanitarian implications of the findings in a landmark UN climate report this week, which warned drastic action was needed to prevent Earth from hurtling towards an unbearable rise in temperature.

The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) said the globe's surface has already warmed one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) -- enough to lift oceans and unleash a crescendo of deadly storms, floods and droughts -- and is on track toward an unliveable 3C or 4C rise.

- 'Pressure cooker' -

Gernot Laganda, who heads the World Food Programme's climate and disaster risk reduction division, pointed out that climate shocks are already "significant drivers of displacement", forcing 22.5 million people to leave their homes each year.

Speaking to journalists in Geneva, he also decried the "increasingly distractive interplay between conflict and climate disasters."

He pointed out that the world's 10 most conflict-affected countries, including Syria, Yemen and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are also impacted by extreme weather events, creating a so-called "pressure-cooker" effect.

Laganda pointed to projections that if the planet warms just 2C, 189 million more people than today will become food insecure.

"And if it is a four-degree warmer world ... we're looking beyond one billion more," he said, adding that this "is a very, very strong argument for early and decisive climate action."

Sy meanwhile said humanitarians had already seen a dramatic increase in climate and weather-related crises.

"In the 1970s, we used to be dealing with 80 to 100 severe weather-related shocks and hazards" each year, he said, contrasting that to last year, when the number was around 400 -- "four times more."

While acknowledging that climate-related shocks would likely keep climbing, Sy emphasised that it was not inevitable that such shocks and hazards should "become a disaster."

"We need to be better prepared with early warning and with early alert," he said, also stressing the importance for IFRC of continuously having volunteers on the ground in affected communities to help them to adapt to climate change.

The organisation counts some 70 million volunteers around the world, so when climate-linked shocks and hazards hit, they "find us already there," he said.


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
With climate change fiction, novelists aim for 'radical empathy'
Frankfurt Am Main (AFP) Oct 11, 2018
As alarm bells over global warming ring louder, authors are increasingly turning to climate change fiction to dramatise the catastrophic effects of droughts, hurricanes and floods - and inspire action. Dubbed "cli-fi", the genre has seen an explosion in popularity in recent years as environmental changes sweep the globe and tales of a planet in turmoil appear less like science fiction and a lot more real. "Climate change is slow-moving and intensely place-based," said US literary expert Elizabe ... read more

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