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Israel PM's plan unlikely to be serious: analysts

by Staff Writers
Jerusalem (AFP) March 10, 2011
Benjamin Netanyahu's talk about a new diplomatic peace initiative has caused a collective rolling of eyes in Israel, with analysts saying it was unlikely to make the Palestinians a serious offer.

Although details of the Israeli premier's "new" initiative have yet to be made public, the basics have been widely leaked to the Israeli press -- a Palestinian state on temporary borders in the framework of a long-term interim agreement.

But is the leader of Israel's right-wing Likud party ready to make the necessary compromises to secure an elusive peace deal which would lead to the end of the conflict with the Palestinians? Few are convinced.

"If there is to be even the smallest chance of convincing the Palestinians and the international community about his desire for peace, Netanyahu will have to take a clear position on withdrawing from the West Bank and defining the borders," political analyst Menahem Klein told AFP.

"If that's the case, the Palestinians would do well not to close the door to negotiations," said Klein, who lectures at Bar Ilan University near Tel Aviv.

"But I doubt that Netanyahu would go that far because he is a prisoner of his own ideological convictions, and a hostage to his (hardline) political allies," he told AFP, describing the move as just a "trial balloon."

For analyst Yossi Alpher, talk of a new peace plan is little more than a "public relations exercise aimed first and foremost at Washington."

Without freezing Jewish settlement activity, Alpher doesn't see any way of restarting peace talks with the Palestinians, and he thinks it unlikely that Netanyahu would pay such a price "which would cost him his ruling coalition."

But some of the more moderate elements in Netanyahu's right-wing government are urging him to move quickly in order to take the wind out of a Palestinian initiative to secure international recognition for an independent state.

The Israeli leader has himself expressed concern about the growing isolation of the Jewish state and the creeping danger of its transformation into a bi-national state -- which he reportedly said "would be disastrous for Israel."

Sources in his entourage have suggested Netanyahu may present his plan in Washington in the coming months -- either in a speech to Congress or at a conference of the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC in late May.

The central idea of the plan is to push for a long-term interim accord instead of talks towards a final status agreement, which would see the emergence of a Palestinian state within provisional borders.

But the Palestinians have always rejected the idea of an interim agreement, and say they will not even entertain the notion of a state within temporary borders.

Former Labour minister Yossi Beilin said talk of a new direction was likely to be little more than an attempt to manipulate the blame game for the collapse of peace talks.

"Netanyahu gives the impression he is placing all his hopes on the Palestinians rejecting his idea in order to shift the blame onto them for blocking the peace process," said Beilin, one of the architects of the 1993 Oslo peace accords.

"The Palestinians have good reason to fear an interim agreement, which would lead to the establishment of a mini-state on around 50 percent of the West Bank and would perpetuate the occupation in the rest of the territory," he told AFP.

Opposition leader Tzipi Livni also expressed little hope the initiative would turn out to be anything of substance.

"Of course, we will support any step in the right direction, but won't see even one," she remarked on Tuesday.

And the spectre of a new diplomatic initiative has raised hackles within Netanyahu's Likud party, with deputy prime minister Silvan Shalom warning on Tuesday that Israel must "avoid being pressured into any form of unilateral measure."

Israel's growing isolation was clearly illustrated last month during a UN Security Council vote on an Arab resolution condemning as illegal Israeli settlement on occupied Palestinian land.

The resolution won the backing of 14 of the 15 council members, but it was ultimately blocked when the United States reluctantly cast a veto -- a move for which Israel may soon have to pay the price, commentators say.

Since the expiry in September of a temporary ban on settlement building -- which Netanyahu refused to extend -- the Palestinians have refused all direct contact with the Israelis, saying they will not talk while settlers build on land they want for a future state.

Frustrated by the deadlock and aware of the rising instability in the region, the international community, spearheaded by the Middle East Quartet, are now trying to push both sides into restarting some form of negotiations.



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