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NUKEWARS
'Imminent' N. Korea nuclear test unlikely: US think-tank
by Staff Writers
Seoul (AFP) May 14, 2014


Iran shares nuclear technology with N. Korea: Netanyahu
Tokyo (AFP) May 14, 2014 - Iran is sharing nuclear technology with North Korea, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview published Wednesday, as Tehran and world powers hold talks aimed at ending a decade-old standoff.

Netanyahu, who is in Japan this week for talks with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, said Iran "would share whatever technology it acquired with North Korea," the Mainichi Shimbun reported in a front-page piece.

Asked if Pyongyang is receiving technologies linked to nuclear and missile development from Iran, Netanyahu said: "Yes, that's exactly the case."

North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programme is one of Japan's major security concerns.

Despite international isolation and extensive sanctions, North Korea appears to be readying to carry out a fourth nuclear test, observers have said, and regularly makes noises about the weaponisation of its technology.

While being at the leading edge of Pyongyang's isolation, resource-poor Japan has maintained friendly relations with oil-rich Iran through its years of ostracism, keeping up a diplomatic dialogue that many developed countries cut off decades ago.

Late Tuesday, during a meeting with Kishida, Netanyahu called both Iran and North Korea "rogue" states.

"We see a danger and a challenge posed by a rogue state arming itself with nuclear weapons. In your case it's North Korea," he said.

"We are faced with such a rogue state in the form of Iran and its quest to develop nuclear weapons," he said.

"Iran continues to deceive the world and advance its nuclear programme," he said, adding "Clearly the Ayatollahs cannot be trusted."

"And if the international community wants to avoid the spectre of nuclear terrorism, they must assure that Iran... not have the capability to develop nuclear weapons," he said.

Kishida however "stressed...the importance of support by the international community including Israel to the framework of talks" between Iran and five UN nuclear powers plus Germany, the foreign ministry said in a statement.

Abe also made a similar comment on Monday.

Tehran insists its nuclear programme is intended only to generate power for civilian purposes.

Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany are meeting in Vienna for a latest round of talks aimed at drafting the text of a comprehensive and potentially historic deal.

An accord would see Tehran's atomic programme drastically reduced, and sanctions lifted on its lifeblood oil exports in return.

Despite fears to the contrary, North Korea does not appear to be preparing an imminent nuclear test, a US think-tank said Wednesday in an analysis of recent satellite images of Pyongyang's main test site.

While the latest pictures dated May 9 do show high levels of activity at the Punggye-ri site, most of it seems to be of a mundane, routine nature that would not be consistent with an impending test, the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University said.

In an analysis posted on its website 38 North, the institute offered several scenarios, including the possibility that Pyongyang had been pushing towards a test but was warned off by its main ally and economic benefactor, China.

"Based on available evidence... it appears that a nuclear test is not imminent," the analysis said.

"Indeed, given previous North Korean practices, one possible conclusion is that if the North is planning a test, it may still be weeks away," it added.

The international community has been on edge for a month after South Korea cited intelligence reports that the North was planning to conduct its fourth nuclear test -- possibly to coincide with US President Barack Obama's visit to Seoul in April.

Subsequent satellite analysis by several think-tanks confirmed stepped-up activity at the Punggye-ri site, but most stopped short of predicting a detonation timeline.

And 38 North stressed that its conclusions were based, as with all forecasts of North Korea's future behaviour, on limited information about a highly unpredictable regime.

"Of course, the North Koreans could test tomorrow," it said.

"But after a month of crying wolf, it appears the odds-on favourite now is that a test is not imminent and in fact, may be some days, weeks or even months off."

North Korea has conducted three nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009 and 2012.

In a joint press briefing with Obama during his Seoul visit, South Korean President Park Geun-Hye warned that another test would "fundamentally change the security landscape" in Northeast Asia.

In remarks aimed as much at Beijing as Pyongyang, Park said a fourth detonation would "completely dissolve" the prospect of returning to six-party talks that China wants to revive, which are meant to offer North Korea aid in return for dismantling its nuclear drive.

The 38 North analysis suggested the North may have been planning an imminent test but cancelled "at the last minute" as the result of Chinese pressure to hold off.

It offered other scenarios, including the possibility that an impending test had never been on the cards, and the stepped-up activity was just post-winter maintenance work.

Or Pyongyang may have just been simulating test preparations to get attention.

"Of course we may never know if any of these explanations is correct," the institute said.

.


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