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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Groundswell of climate action at 'summit' faces hard truths
By Marlowe HOOD
San Francisco (AFP) Sept 11, 2018

Ban Ki-moon, Bill Gates head climate body
The Hague (AFP) Sept 10, 2018 - Former UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon and billionaire businessman and philanthropist Bill Gates will head an international commission on climate change to launch next month, the Dutch government said Monday.

The commission, to be co-hosted by the Global Center on Adaptation, hosted by the Netherlands in partnership with the World Resources Institute, seeks to "convince countries across the globe to take measures to arm themselves against the consequences of climate change," the Dutch minister for infrastructure and water management said.

World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva will also oversee the Rotterdam-based commission, which styles itself as a 'solutions broker' to speed climate reform linking governments and inter-governmental bodies, the private and public sectors according to the announcement which came two days after global climate protests.

"We hope that the need to adapt to climate change may be felt on a global scale," said the minister, Cora van Nieuwenhuizen, who added a plan of action would be unveiled on protecting the zones most vulnerable to climate change in September of next year.

"Today's announcements by the Government of the Netherlands is a critical step forward to set in motion more vigorous attention to and action around climate adaptation," said Ban, who said the commission was embarking on a "worldwide mission to accelerate adaptation".

Ban, Microsoft founder Gates and Georgieva will be in the Netherlands on October 16 for a conference officially launching the commission.

The launch comes with a coalition of 17 US states having vowed to challenge President Donald Trump after his decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Accord on climate change and bind themselves by climate change regulations introduced under predecessor Barack Obama.

Thousands of delegates are meanwhile converging on San Francisco for this week's three-day Global Climate Action Summit designed to take support for the Paris Accord to a new level.

Governors, mayors, CEOs and billionaire philanthropists gather in San Francisco this week to take aim at global warming as the world awakens to the all-too-real threat of climate change run amuck.

The three-day Global Climate Action Summit, which kicks off Wednesday, will see hundreds of cities, regions and companies worth hundreds of billions pledge to run on solar or wind power within a few decades.

California's governor and host Jerry Brown, whose crusade for clean energy started in the 1970s, set the tone by approving landmark legislation Monday that commits his state to purging CO2 from its electricity grid by 2045.

"We all have the opportunity and the obligation to do our part to combat climate change," he told AFP hours after signing the bill into law.

Even heavy industry giants in emerging economies such as UltraTech Cement and Mahindra Vehicle Manufacturers in India, and South Africa chemicals multinational Sasol, have joined the clean energy-only bandwagon.

Major cities will likely announce greenhouse gas emissions trending downward, and governors will unveil partnerships supporting indigenous efforts to sustainably manage tropical, carbon-dense forests.

Nearly 1,000 institutional investors managing trillions in assets have, at least in part, turned their backs on planet-warming fossil fuels.

"This summit is going to be a showcase for the whole world in terms of climate action," said Ethan Elkind, head of the climate program at the Center for Law, Energy & the Environment at the University of California, Berkeley.

- 'Runaway climate change' -

California's electricity pledge "shows that it is possible to decarbonize while continuing to grow your economy and produce jobs at the same time," he told AFP.

But the flurry of promises and promissary notes run head-on into two hard and unyielding realities, one political and the other rooted in the physics of a warming planet.

A UN tally of all the local carbon-reduction initiatives so far reveals "encouraging potential" but will ultimately fall short without deeper commitments from national governments, UN Environment chief Erik Solheim said Monday.

CO2 emissions -- after remaining stable for three years, raising hopes that they had peaked -- rose in 2017 to historic levels.

"If we do not change course by 2020, we risk missing the point where we can avoid runaway climate change," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a speech Monday, warning of a "dark and dangerous future."

The 196-nation Paris climate pact inked in 2015 calls for capping global warming as "well below" two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and vows to strive for a 1.5 C limit if possible.

But even if nations honor voluntary carbon-cutting vows submitted in an annex to the treaty, we are trending toward a 3.5 C world, a scenario scientists say would pull at the fabric of civilization.

- Ditching the Paris pact -

With only a single degree Celsius of warming since the pre-industrial benchmark, our planet is already coping with a crescendo of climate impacts including deadly droughts, erratic rainfall, and storm surges engorged by rising seas.

The political reality slowing the transition to a global economy powered by clean energy rather than fossil fuels resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington DC and has dismissed climate change a hoax.

US President Donald Trump opted out of the Paris Agreement, and has hammered away at the domestic and international climate policies of his predecessor, Barack Obama.

As a consequence, the United States is unlikely to meet its carbon cutting pledges.

More worrying, say experts, is the impact his actions may have abroad.

Still a party to UN climate talks, which face a December deadline for finalizing the rules governing the Paris pact, the Trump administration -- after laying low -- tabled demands last week that could destabilize the fragile negotiations.

So far, the United States is the only country to ditch the landmark treaty. But Brazilian presidential frontrunner Jair Bolsonaro has said he too would pull out if elected in October.

The co-chairs of the San Francisco climate summit include former New York mayor and philanthropist Michael Bloomberg, UN climate chief Patricia Espinosa, and China's top climate official, Xie Zhenhua.


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Prehistoric changes in vegetation help predict future of Earth's ecosystems
Tucson AZ (SPX) Sep 11, 2018
As the last ice age came to an end and the planet warmed, the Earth's vegetation changed dramatically, reports a University of Arizona-led international research team. The current warming from climate change may drive an equally dramatic change in vegetation within the next 100 to 150 years unless greenhouse-gas emissions are reduced, the team wrote. "We found that ecosystems all over the globe experienced big changes," said Connor Nolan, a doctoral candidate in the UA Department of Geoscien ... read more

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