There is a 15 percent chance the North Atlantic Current, a major ocean current bringing warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to Europe, is disrupted during the next 100 years.

According to a new study, the current is unlikely to come to a complete stop -- contrary to previous speculation.

To better understand the impacts of Greenland melt water and precipitation variability on the North Atlantic Current, scientists at University of Groningen and Utrecht University developed a new model.

Previous studies have suggested ocean currents are influenced by the amount of freshwater being added to the ocean surface. As climate change has accelerated the melting of Greenland glaciers, the North Atlantic has experienced an increase in freshwater inputs.

Scientists have previously estimated the increase in Greenland melt water could slow, halt or even reverse the North Atlantic Current.

This isn't the first time scientists have attempted to model the effects of freshwater on ocean currents.

"Both high-resolution models, based on the equations describing fluid flows, and highly simplified box models have been used," Fred Wubs, a professor of numerical mathematics at the University of Groningen, said in a news release. "Our colleagues in Utrecht created a box model that describes present-day large-scale processes in the ocean rather well."

Wubs and his colleagues designed their new model to better predict the influence of small changes in freshwater on larger ocean processes. The results of their simulations, described this week in the journal Scientific Reports, suggest small shifts in the amount of freshwater being delivered to the ocean surface can have surprisingly large impacts on ocean currents.

To determine the chance of a rare event like the stoppage or reversal of the North Atlantic Current, scientists would typically have to generate thousands of simulations. But the researchers used a method developed by a French scientists for selecting only the most promising simulations.

"These simulations showed that the chances of a total collapse of the North Atlantic Current within the next thousand years are negligible," said Wubs.

But while scientists found extremely low odds of a total stop or reversal, the simulations showed a decent chance melt water and precipitation variability could combine to temporarily disrupt the flow of warm water from the Gulf to Europe.

"In our simulations, the chances of this happening in the next 100 years are 15 percent," Wubs said.

A disruption of the North Atlantic Current would increase the odds of cold spells in Europe.

Related Links
Beyond the Ice Age

Tweet

Thanks for being here; We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain. With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords. Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year. If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor $5 Billed Once credit card or paypal		SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter $5 Billed Monthly paypal only

Unusual glacier flow could be first-ever look at ice stream formation
Washington DC (SPX) Dec 18, 2019
Scientists have captured the birth of a high-speed ice feature for the first time on top of a Russian glacier. In a remote archipelago of the Russian Arctic, Vavilov Ice Cap had been moving at a glacial pace for decades. Then, in 2013, it suddenly started spewing ice into the sea, flowing in what scientists call a glacial surge. But a new study suggests this surge has now become something entirely different. The authors of the new study published in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Lette ... read more