A quick barrage of missile tests and bumper defence deals in the Pacific have highlighted a regional arms race that is intensifying as the China-US rivalry grows.

"There's a little frenzy in the Indo-Pacific of arming up," said Yonsei University professor John Delury. "There's a sense of everyone's doing it."

Within 24 hours this week, North Korea fired off two railway-borne weapons, South Korea successfully tested its first submarine-launched ballistic missile, and Australia announced the unprecedented purchase of state-of-the-art US nuclear-powered submarines and cruise missiles.

A remarkable flurry, but indicative of a region spending apace on the latest wonders of modern weaponry, experts say.

Last year alone, the Asia and Oceania region lavished more than half a trillion US dollars on its militaries, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

"You've really seen an upward trend for the last 20 years," the institute's Lucie Beraud-Sudreau told AFP. "Asia is really the region where the uptick trend is the most noticeable."

She points to a perfect storm of rapid economic growth -- which puts more money in the government kitties -- and changing "threat perceptions" in the region.

- Big brothers -

China accounts for about half of Asia's total and has increased defence spending every year for the last 26 years, turning the People's Liberation Army into a modern fighting force.

Beijing now spends an estimated $252 billion a year -- up 76 percent since 2011 -- allowing it to project power across the region and directly challenge US primacy.

But defence spending in Australia, India, Japan, South Korea and elsewhere is also gathering pace.

Michael Shoebridge, a former Australian defence intelligence official, now with the Australia Strategic Policy Institute, believes that spending is a direct reaction to China.

"The actual military competition is between China and other partners that are wanting to deter China from using force," he said.

"That reaction has just grown, particularly since Xi (Jinping) has become leader. He's clearly interested in using all the power that China gains fairly coercively and aggressively."

Today around 20 percent of the region's defence spending is on procurement, notably on maritime assets and long-range deterrence designed to convince Beijing -- or any other adversary -- that the cost of attack is too high.

Shoebridge points to Australia's landmark decision Thursday to acquire at least eight US nuclear-powered submarines and an unspecified number of Tomahawk cruise missiles.

"They're all focused on raising the cost to China of engaging in military conflict. They're a pretty effective counter to the kinds of capabilities the PLA has been building."

But even South Korean spending "is as much driven by China as North Korea," he said. "There's no explanation for (Seoul's decision to build) an aircraft carrier that involves North Korea."

Similarly, "India's military modernisation is clearly driven by China's growing military power," Shoebridge added.

For its part China -- fond of describing its relationship with the United States as "great power rivalry" -- accuses the United States of fuelling the arms race.

In the words of state-backed tabloid the Global Times, Washington is "hysterically polarising its alliance system."

If fear of China is the driving force behind regional defence spending, then the United States has appeared happy to speed the process along, actively helping regional allies to beef up.

As China and Japan were "blazing forward" with defence programmes, Delury says Washington has been "aiding and abetting" allies "in the name of deterring China."

"We're not seeing arms control here, we're seeing the opposite," he said.

Naval power in the Pacific in numbers
Paris (AFP) Sept 17, 2021 - Australia's decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under a newly announced alliance with the United States and Britain has highlighted regional concerns over China's growing maritime might in the Pacific.

Justifying ditching an earlier deal with France for conventional submarines, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said it was "not a change of mind, it's a change of need".

AFP takes a look at how the military balance of power in the region stands.

- Total battle force -

In terms of number of ships -- surface vessels and submarines -- China has the largest navy in the world, according to the US Department of Defense.

At the end of 2020, the size of China's navy -- or its "battle force ships" -- was approximately 360, compared to the United States' 297, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence.

It also projected that China's navy will increase to 400 ships in 2025 and 425 in 2030.

- Rate of expansion -

Five of the United States' 11 aircraft carriers are based in the Pacific.

But China has already started construction on its third aircraft carrier and is also building more destroyers.

According to defence experts Janes, between 2015 and 2019, China built 132 vessels -- compared to the United States' 68, India's 48, Japan's 29 and Australia's nine.

France built 17 new ships in the same timeframe, while Britain manufactured four, two of which were aircraft carriers.

Or to put it another way, in four years, China launched the equivalent of the French naval fleet, according to Admiral Pierre Vandier, Chief of Staff of the French Navy.

He said the "historic Chinese naval effort" represented 55 percent of China's defence budget.

- Submarines -

Beijing has six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) that are armed with nuclear missiles, as well as around 40 attack submarines, of which six are nuclear-powered, according to Military Balance, the International Institute for Strategic Studies' annual assessment of military capacity around the world.

For its part, Washington has 21 attack submarines and eight SSBNs in the Pacific, mainly operating out of Pearl Harbor, according to the US Navy.

Australia has six Swedish-designed diesel-electric Collins-class submarines that have been in service since the mid-1990s.

It had been due to refresh its fleet with 12 French-made state-of-the-art attack vessels; to Paris' fury, that multibillion-dollar deal has now been scrapped in favour of building a nuclear-powered fleet with US help.

As well as Australia, other regional stakeholders have beefed up their naval capabilities, most notably in terms of acquiring their own underwater vessels.

Vietnam has six Russian-designed submarines; Malaysia has two submarines; Indonesia has ordered six from South Korea; and the Philippines is thinking of building its own fleet as well.

All these countries are locked in long-running maritime territorial disputes with China.

Meanwhile Japan has 23 submarines, South Korea has 18, Singapore has two and Russia has a dozen.

In a sign of the mounting tensions in the region, France deployed one of its nuclear attack submarines, the Emeraude, to the Pacific at the beginning of 2021 -- a first since 2001.

Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
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All about missiles at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com

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