The European Commission expects emissions to fall by 54 percent by 2030 compared to 1990, very close to its 55 percent target, it said, after analysing member states' energy and climate plans for the coming years.
The EU, however, faces a tough balancing act.
It is seeking to boost European industry confronted by fierce competition in the United States and China, ramp up its defenses faced with Russia, and tackle climate change that is wreaking havoc at an alarming pace with wildfires and floods.
"The world is in a full geopolitical winter. But despite everything that is going on today, we do feel we have good news, and we're pleased to say that the EU is well on track to achieve its 2030 target," climate chief Wopke Hoekstra, said.
"It is also fair to say that the ambition on paper needs to be matched by ambition in the real world," Hoekstra told reporters in Brussels.
The bloc has already cut emissions by 37 percent compared to 1990, including an eight-percent drop in 2023, the commission said.
Brussels said most member states were now aligned with the target of reaching a share of renewable energy in total consumption of 42.5 percent by 2030.
The commission, however, pointed to disparities between member states on cutting emissions and highlighted the problems of protecting forests and carbon storage.
It singled out Belgium, Estonia and Poland, which have not submitted their energy and climate plans, urging them to "do so without delay".
"We have reasons to be proud, although we cannot be satisfied. We've come a long way, but we're not where we need to be yet," said energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen.
- Flexibility -
Climate Action Network Europe's Giulia Nardi said the 2030 targets were achievable "but without effective national policies and credible financing -- both of which are largely lacking in the updated plans -- implementation will fall short."
The EU has set a goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, and Brussels wants to agree on an interim target for 2040 -- with the commission seeking to cut emissions by 90 percent compared to 1990 levels.
"A clear target for 2040 and giving predictability, in our view, is important," Hoekstra said.
But negotiations are stalling between EU countries on the 2040 target, and the commission has shied away from formally proposing the 90-percent cut to member states.
For some countries like the Czech Republic and Italy, the target is unrealistic.
The commission is considering greater flexibility in its calculations for 2040, including through the purchase of carbon credits on international markets.
The EU's executive arm insists it will submit a formal proposal before the summer and stresses that the bloc will be ready for the next UN COP30 climate conference, which will be held in November in the Amazonian city of Belem in Brazil.
- Cutting red tape -
The delays have raised concerns among environmental groups, which have urged Europe to take the lead on fighting climate change -- US President Donald Trump having withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement after his return to the White House in January.
Environment defenders are also fearful of a wholesale unravelling of the European Green Deal, a landmark package of measures that defined commission chief Ursula von der Leyen's first term in office but has since come increasingly under fire.
Von der Leyen's commission has slashed red tape within months of taking office as the political sphere has also changed with right-wing gains across Europe.
Brussels has taken the axe to environmental rules affecting businesses -- with France and Germany going further in demanding they be scrapped -- and also delayed its anti-deforestation law.
France pushing for 'China-EU leadership' on climate
Paris (AFP) May 28, 2025 -
The European Union and China must "take on global climate leadership" in the wake of US President Donald Trump's return to the White House, a French government source said Wednesday, ahead of a top French official's visit to Beijing.
Agnes Pannier-Runacher, France's minister for ecological transition, is slated to meet counterparts on Thursday and Friday in the first visit to China by a French environment minister in five years.
A member of her team said the visit came at a "pivotal moment" on three key themes: the year-end COP30 climate summit in Brazil, the UN Ocean Conference in Nice starting June 9, and negotiations in August in Geneva to forge an international treaty to combat plastic pollution.
"The idea is to see how -- given the US withdrawal (from climate leadership) -- we can try to build a new convergence between the EU and China on climate," the source said.
The US pull-out from the 2015 Paris Agreement -- the second time Trump has taken this step -- "leaves these two key players with the responsibility of taking climate leadership," the source added.
The broad-based multilateralism that has driven progress in climate talks to date is under strain, and could fray as other countries review their commitments to curb carbon pollution in light of the Trump administration's position, according to analysts.
"It is extremely important that China and the European Union send a very strong message," the source said.
A bilateral Sino-US accord in April 2015 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is widely credited with paving the way for the landmark Paris climate treaty signed later that year.
The French minister's visit comes in advance of a Beijing-Brussels summit in China in July, which France has identified as "a good opportunity" to publicly affirm Sino-European leadership on climate issues.
At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, countries committed to transition away from fossil fuels, a promise that saw little progress at COP29 in Baku the following year.
Pannier-Runacher, who will talk with the Chinese environment and natural resources ministers, as well as former special envoy for climate change Xie Zhenhua, will discuss how to "push this issue" when nations meet in Brazil in November at the COP30 summit, the source said.
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