China is still at least a decade, maybe more, away from building its own fleet of reliable medium- to long-distance military air transports. For that reason, it is eager to purchase a fleet of reliable old Ilyushin Il-76 jet transports from Russia. The Beijing government would even like to close a deal -- which would be very lucrative for Russia in the short term -- to buy the technology to build Ilyushin Il-76s in their own country. They also would like to purchase significant numbers of the sister Ilyushin Il-76 aerial refueling aircraft -- Russia's rough equivalent of the veteran, highly reliable Boeing KC-135.

However, up to now the Kremlin has refused to part with these crown jewels of its air support for overseas power projection arsenal. As a result, as UPI's Andrei Chang has reported, China is now hoping to buy the new Antonov An-70 from Ukraine, or at least try to scare Russia into finally approving the Il-76 deal for fear of losing such a lucrative offer to Ukraine. But the An-70's development is way behind schedule and so far has been plagued with problems.

Similarly, the major nations of the European Union -- France, Germany, Britain, Italy and Spain -- would like to develop their own military air transport out of the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co.'s Airbus. But as UPI's Leander Schaerlaeckens has reported, the EADS A400 military air transport has fallen badly behind schedule. As a result, Britain's Ministry of Defense is now considering buying two U.S.-built C-17 Globemaster heavy military transports, or they may buy more U.S. Lockheed Martin C-130K Hercules military air transports.

Both the Globemaster C-17 and the C-130 Hercules have been the world's best and most reliable military air lifters for decades. The Europeans had a reasonable expectation that the A400 might succeed in the military airlift market, as the A330 Airbus airliner had done in the civilian airliner sector, in wresting a significant proportion of the world's demand away from Boeing and Lockheed Martin in the United States. But if Britain is forced to buy more C-17s or Globemasters, these moves are necessary because of EADS' delays in building its projected A400 military air transport.

Even worse, from EADS' point of view, the delays in building the A400 Airbus are bound to strengthen Boeing's case to the incoming Obama administration that EADS and its American partner Northrop-Grumman cannot be relied upon to stay within timetable and within budget if they once again get the contract to build the U.S. Air Force's next-generation fleet of aerial refueling tankers. Boeing has successfully retained the U.S. Air Force's aging but still very airworthy fleet of KC-135s for nearly half a century -- since the Eisenhower administration, in fact. But EADS has never built either a heavy military air lifter or a long-range refueling tanker before. If it continues to fall behind schedule on the air tanker, fears are bound to grow that the same thing will happen on a far larger scale on the much more demanding long-range military lifter as well.

The problems China and the European Union's major nations face in developing their own military airlift aircraft are remarkably similar, even though the European aerospace industry is far more experienced than China's: It takes decades, even generations, to develop mature military industrial sectors, especially for large-scale advanced weapons systems and aircraft. Russia and the United States can still produce first-class military air lifters; the Chinese and the Europeans, for all their other accomplishments and resources, still cannot.

(Part 3: Canada and Venezuela try to buy airlift capability)

Related Links
The Military Industrial Complex at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com

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