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OIL AND GAS
Crude oil prices searching for OPEC direction
by Daniel J. Graeber
New York (UPI) Nov 22, 2016


U.S. gas prices low, but watch out for OPEC
Washington (UPI) Nov 22, 2016 - Though prices may hinge on OPEC decisions, holiday travelers in the United States are enjoying sub-$3 gas for the first time in years, market analysts said.

Motor club AAA reports a national average retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline at $2.13 for Tuesday, about 1 percent lower than a week ago and 4 percent, or 9 cents per gallon, less than a month ago.

While gas prices are higher than this time last year by about 5 cents per gallon, retail prices are at historic lows in terms of the national average.

"This year will go down as the first in over a decade that no state -- not even traditionally pricey Hawaii or California -- has seen its average daily price breach $3 per gallon," Patrick DeHaan, a senior analyst with retail price-watcher GasBuddy, said in an emailed statement.

By region, AAA reports West Coast states remain the most expensive in the country, with California holding the distinction of having the highest prices in the Lower 48 at around $2.70 per gallon. Prices in that market could remain under pressure because of a fire at a PBF Energy refinery last week in Torrance, Calif.

Great Lakes states, meanwhile, are the most volatile and five states there have the honor of being the only ones with an increase in retail prices from last week, with Ohio pump prices spiking 10 cents per gallon. Price movements there may be vulnerable to ongoing maintenance at a BP refinery in Whiting, Ind., the region's largest, but AAA said that work should wrap up by the end of the month.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meet at the end of the month to consider the terms of a production ceiling proposed in September. OPEC may need support from non-member states to make the agreement stick, though the price for Brent crude oil is up almost 20 percent from last week in expectations of a deal.

Crude oil prices account for the bulk of what consumers pay for gasoline. Gas prices were about 2.5 percent lower on this date in 2015 and crude oil prices were about 12 percent lower.

Crude oil prices staged an abrupt retreat in early trading Tuesday as doubts lingered over OPEC coordination.

Crude oil prices bounced around net gains and losses in the early rounds of the Tuesday session as investors bet on the latest chatter from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Crude oil prices posted one of their strongest sessions Monday on support from Iran and Russia for a production arrangement, though doubts persisted on Tuesday amid fluid offers from the 14 members of OPEC.

"As long as OPEC members can maintain statements that they are working in harmony, it will be difficult to trade against a rebounding trend given the amount of speculative short positions," Olivier Jakob, managing director of Switzerland-based consultant Petromatrix, said in a research note published Tuesday.

Crude oil prices made a run at $50 per barrel in overnight trading but started the day in New York in mixed territory. The price for Brent crude oil was higher than the previous close by 0.6 percent to open the day at $49.19 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, was flat to start trading at $48.25 per barrel.

Crude oil prices are up almost 20 percent from early November in anticipation that the 14 members will agree to hold production levels at a ceiling proposed in Algeria in September. Using the latest production figures, however, OPEC members would have to agree on cuts from somewhere to make the proposal work as planned.

A research note published Monday by Goldman Sachs said a formal agreement would do more to reduce volatility for crude oil prices than support a durable price increase. Russian oil company Lukoil said Tuesday it was pegging its two-year budget plans on $40 per barrel for Brent.

On the economic front, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reported gross domestic product for its members grew 0.6 percent in the third quarter, up from the 0.3 percent in the previous quarter.

Growth in Europe was slowed by GDP declines in the United Kingdom and Germany, though the entire European Union was relatively stable. The U.S. economy grew 0.7 percent in the third quarter, against a rate of 0.4 percent in the previous quarter.

"Year-on-year GDP growth for the OECD area was 1.7 percent in the third quarter of 2016, marginally up from 1.6 percent in the previous quarter," the organization's preliminary data showed.


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