China's leverage on North Korea limited: analysts

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Is China just a paper tiger when it really counts, or is the reality that Beijing likes the games Kim plays with the West?

China urges restraint after NKorea rocket launch: govt
China urged restraint Sunday after close ally North Korea defied international appeals and launched a long-range rocket, with Beijing saying it hoped relevant parties would "remain calm." "We have noted that North Korea carried out a launch this morning, and we have also noted the reaction of relevant parties," foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said in an online statement. "We hope relevant parties will remain calm and restrained, handle the situation properly, and together maintain peace and stability in the region." Jiang made no mention of what the rocket carried, saying only that prior to the launch Sunday, North Korea had announced it would fire a communications satellite. The United States and Japan, however, have said the launch is actually a test for a ballistic missile capable of reaching Alaska. Nearly four hours after the event, there was still no official confirmation on the content of the rocket, although a report from South Korean news agency Yonhap said Pyongyang had fired a satellite. The launch drew widespread condemnation from governments around the world, with US President Barack Obama criticising it as a "provocative" act, and South Korea denouncing it as a "reckless" threat to world security. The UN Security Council is to meet in an emergency session later Sunday to discuss the implications of the launch, which the United States, South Korea and Japan view as a violation of a 2006 council resolution. China, a permanent member of the council, is North Korea's staunchest ally, and experts say Beijing is highly likely to veto any move to impose sanctions on Pyongyang.

by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) April 5, 2009
North Korea's rocket launch on Sunday shows China does not have as much influence on Kim Jong-Il's regime as some believe, despite being its biggest economic and political ally, analysts said.

In the lead-up to the rocket launch, China came under pressure from many fronts to use its influence on its communist neighbour to not go ahead with it.

North Korea had said it was launching a communications satellite -- a claim it maintained after the launch at 0220 GMT Sunday -- but the United States, South Korea and Japan were concerned it was actually a long-range missile test and said it breached a UN Security Council resolution.

China undoubtedly has more influence with North Korea than anyone else, evidenced by North Korean Premier Kim Yong-Il's visit to Beijing last month and other high-level contacts in recent years between the two countries.

But John Feffer of the US-based Institute for Policy Studies said the secretive regime in Pyongyang did not in any way feel beholden to the leadership in Beijing.

"The historical ties and ideological similarities no longer exert any influence," Feffer said.

"North Korea is dubious of 'older brother' pressure" and does not want a subservient relationship."

Leonid Petrov, an associate researcher at the Australian National University, said China would have made its views about the rocket launch known to the regime in Pyongyang.

"But (China) does it very cautiously out of fear of losing its remaining leverage on North Korea," he said, adding that China wanted to keep that influence for a time when it was really necessary to protect its own interests.

The UN Security Council was due to meet later Sunday to discuss the implications of the launch, but experts said China -- a permanent member of the council -- was likely to veto any move to impose sanctions on its ally.

Petrov said proof of China's weak hand with North Korea came when Pyongyang conducted its first and only atomic test in October 2006.

A Chinese envoy was the first foreign official to meet Kim in Pyongyang soon after the test, which elevated North Korea's nuclear programmes to the top of the global political agenda.

But North Korea defied Chinese calls not to go ahead with the test. And Petrov said Pyongyang informed Beijing that it would carry out the test only 20 minutes in advance.

Analysts say one way in which China is able to exert some influence on the impoverished nation is through the delivery of food and energy.

North Korea's economy, ravaged by poor economic planning and international sanctions, is largely kept afloat by China.

Last year, Beijing increased its exports to North Korea by 46 percent to more than two billion dollars, according to Chinese figures, accounting for a large proportion of the nation's food and energy supplies.

These deliveries have in the past been used by China as a way to put pressure on Pyongyang.

"China has applied pressure in the past to get North Korea to come to the negotiating table and take more flexible positions," said Feffer.

But China is reluctant to use this leverage too dramatically because it dreads triggering an influx of North Korean refugees across its 1,400-kilometre-long (875-mile) porous border with the country.

"I am not sure if China has any significant level of influence over North Korea," said Jing-dong Yuan, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Programme at the US-based Monterey Institute of International Studies.

"Although Beijing can do things that can in turn hurt North Korea, given the latter's growing dependence on Chinese economic assistance... inflicting pains on North Korea is not cost-free for Beijing, from both the diplomatic and stability perspectives," he said.

Beijing has also been able to use its investments in North Korean companies, or in big infrastructure projects such as the northern port of Najin, to cajole Pyongyang.

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