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NUKEWARS
China 'to bolster Kim, seeking a stable N. Korea'
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Jan 10, 2012


China began preparing for a power transition in North Korea several years before Kim Jong-Il's death and will do its utmost to consolidate his inexperienced son's hold on power, analysts say.

North Korea's closest ally has long sought to bolster its unpredictable, nuclear-armed neighbour, and is particularly keen to avoid instability on its borders as it prepares for its own transition of power this year and its economy loses steam.

Analysts said the speed with which Beijing recognised Kim's son Kim Jong-Un as the new ruler and called for stability in North Korea indicated it was not taken by surprise by the announcement of his death, two days after it happened.

"It was almost as if the statement had already been drafted before Kim Jong-Il died and the Chinese just had to put the current date at the top and release it to the press," said Scott Bruce of the Nautilus Institute, a US-based research group.

"They have been preparing for this (Kim's death) with the North Koreans. Part of Kim Jong-Il's trips in the last three years appear to have been planning for his death and the succession process."

In his final years, Kim -- diminished by a stroke in August 2008 -- regularly visited China, the biggest provider of humanitarian aid to his impoverished country.

He travelled to the Asian giant four times in just over a year, until his last visit in the summer of 2011.

Rumours that he introduced his youngest son to Chinese leaders in June 2010 in Beijing have not been confirmed.

But Kim Jong-Un reportedly met a delegation of high-level Chinese officials in Pyongyang at the end of that year and Bruce said the delegation gave its blessing to "the hereditary succession to a third generation of the Kim family".

Analysts said China would keep a close eye on all official moves and declarations coming from North Korea, with which it shares a 1,400-kilometre (868-mile) border, and try to extend its influence there.

Beijing fears a collapse of the North Korean regime would bring "the possibility of refugees, loose nukes, regional economic chaos, and an uncertain disposition of US troops on the Korean peninsula", said John Feffer, co-director of US research group Foreign Policy in Focus.

Valerie Niquet, of the Foundation for Strategic Research -- a French think tank -- said North Korea was of "considerable strategic importance" for China, particularly as the "regional re-engagement strategy of the United States (in Asia)" went against Beijing's interests.

Niquet added China wanted to remain an "indispensable go-between" in international efforts to end North Korea's atomic activities and in long-stalled six-nation denuclearisation negotiations hosted by Beijing.

The talks are expected to be high on the agenda as South Korea's President Lee Myung-Bak holds talks Tuesday with China's Premier Wen Jiabao.

"China will do whatever it takes to help consolidate Kim Jong-Un's rule," Feffer said, such as helping the impoverished nation to develop its economy, crippled by energy and food shortages as well as international sanctions.

Kim's last trips to China included visits to special development zones or factories, indicating Beijing was keen to pass on the lessons of the highly successful opening up of the Chinese economy to the outside world.

"It (China) can pump enough resources and expertise into North Korea to get the country back on its feet," said Feffer.

China -- North Korea's primary provider of food, energy, consumer products and weapons -- had negotiated "good deals" on the extraction of natural resources such as copper, coal and even rare earths in exchange, he said.

Beijing has also obtained access to ports such as the one in Rajin, in North Korea's northeast, which gives it strategic access to the Sea of Japan for 10 years, Feffer said.

Trade ties between the two countries have also strengthened, reaching $3.1 billion in the first seven months of 2011, compared with $3.5 billion for the whole of 2010 -- which could be another way for Beijing to stabilise the nation.

"China does not want to see big problems coming out of North Korea, and is ready to support (the country) in its development and reforms so that it develops in a stable manner," said Jia Qingguo, professor of international relations at Peking University.

"Naturally, the Chinese government is worried, because Kim Jong-Un is young and lacks political experience," he said.

"For the moment, his power base is not strong. That's the most worrying."

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N. Korea military pledges support for new leader
Seoul (AFP) Jan 10, 2012 - North Korea's powerful military has held a mass rally to pledge loyalty to the country's new chief Kim Jong-Un, vowing to become "rifles and bombs" to protect him, official media said Tuesday.

The North also announced a rare amnesty for prisoners as the untested young leader tries to build support.

Service members promised to "become rifles and bombs to serve as Kim Jong-Un first-line lifeguards and Kim Jong-Un first-line death-defying corps", the official KCNA news agency said.

The regime moved quickly to proclaim Jong-Un, aged in his late 20s, as its new chief after the sudden death of his father and supreme leader Kim Jong-Il on December 17.

It has appointed the son, who is ranked a general but has no known active military experience, supreme commander of the 1.2 million-strong military.

On Sunday state media showed Jong-Un driving a tank and giving orders to artillery, navy and air force units, in an apparent attempt to bolster his credentials with the world's fourth-largest armed forces.

KCNA said armed forces chief Ri Yong-Ho read the pledge of loyalty to Jong-Un at Monday's rally in Pyongyang of the three branches of the military, which ended with a march past.

The message pledged to "wipe out the enemies to the last one if they intrude into the inviolable sky, land and seas of the country even 0.001 mm", it said.

The rally paid tribute to the "unswerving Songun will" of the new leader, a reference to an army-first policy which prioritises their welfare over civilians in a country hit by severe food shortages.

The North separately announced an amnesty for prisoners to mark the upcoming birth anniversaries of its late leaders.

KCNA said the amnesty -- the first since 2005, according to South Korea's unification ministry -- would apply to "convicts" but did not give numbers or elaborate on who would benefit.

Rights groups say more than 200,000 men, women and children are held in prisons and labour camps, mostly for political and not criminal reasons.

The 70th anniversary of the birth of Kim Jong-Il is on February 16. The 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim's father and founding president Kim Il-Sung falls on April 15.

The news agency said the decision embodies "the "noble, benevolent and all-embracing politics" of the late Kims.

The regime has vowed not to change course under its new leader and has kept up a stream of hostile commentary on South Korea.

Main newspaper Rodong Sinmun took aim Tuesday at a decision by the South and its US ally to sign a joint plan on responding to any North Korean attacks.

An editorial described the joint plan, and scheduled exercises related to it, as "a conspiracy aimed at eventually triggering a war to invade the (North) with the help of a foreign power".

"The traitor Lee Myung-Bak is at the forefront of fanning the madness for war," it said of the South's president.



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NUKEWARS
South Korean president to visit China
Beijing (AFP) Jan 8, 2012
South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak arrives in China on Monday for talks with his counterpart Hu Jintao that will focus on the North Korean leadership transition following the death of Kim Jong-Il. Lee will also meet Premier Wen Jiabao and National People's Congress chairman Wu Bangguo during the three-day visit to Beijing, Lee's office said last week. Both countries are closely watchin ... read more


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