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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China manufacturing deteriorates sharply in June: Caixin
By Benjamin CARLSON
Beijing (AFP) July 1, 2016


China bank PSBC files for 2016's biggest IPO: report
Shanghai (AFP) July 1, 2016 - One of China's biggest banks hopes to raise $8 billion by listing in Hong Kong, in what would be the world's biggest flotation this year, a report said Friday.

Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC), the country's sixth-biggest lender with 40,000 branches -- more than any other bank in the country -- aims to list in the city as soon as September, Bloomberg News said.

The bank -- founded in 2007 in an effort to boost financial services in rural areas -- had as of last September total assets reaching 6.8 trillion yuan (now $1.0 trillion) and served nearly half a billion customers, according to its website.

If successful the initial public offering (IPO) would be the world's biggest since Chinese Internet giant Alibaba's 2014 listing in New York, which raked in $25 billion, according to Bloomberg.

An analyst said the flotation could boost the bank's capital levels and improve management, but warned that reform would be difficult.

"PSBC has heavy baggage and its bank 'gene' is weak," Dong Ximiao, senior economist at China's Renmin University, told AFP. "The task is heavy and the road is long for its reforms.

"The more than 40,000 branches is its advantage, but at the same time, these big inefficient networks are also a big burden," Dong said.

The Hong Kong exchange was closed for a public holiday Friday.

Ahead of the flotation, the Beijing-based lender has sold a one-sixth stake for more than 45 billion yuan to strategic investors including Tencent, UBS Group, Singapore's Temasek Holdings, and Ant Financial, which is linked to Alibaba.

China new home price increases slow in June
Beijing (AFP) July 1, 2016 - The cost of Chinese new homes rose at a slower rate in June from the previous month, figures showed Friday, as measures to tame prices in the world's second-largest economy took hold.

The average price for new houses in 100 major cities increased 1.32 percent month-on-month in June to 11,816 yuan ($1,776) per square metre, the China Index Academy (CIA) said in a statement, down from April's 1.7 percent.

"The effect of tightening policies in some key cities gradually kicked in and transactions in the cities further fell in June," said CIA, the research unit of real estate website operator Soufun.

The once red-hot property market is a key driver of Chinese growth but has had a spell in the doldrums more recently, with new buyers priced out despite government borrowing restrictions reining in soaring costs.

Beijing has introduced several policies to try and stabilise the real estate sector as economic growth weakened, including lowering minimum downpayment requirements, cutting transaction taxes and providing incentives for migrant workers to buy homes.

The policy loosening led prices in some big cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, to spike this year as pent-up demand was unleashed, but at the same time the country has a huge inventory of unsold new homes, mostly in third- and fourth-tier cities.

The government has vowed to take "specialised" measures to tackle diverging trends in different regions.

Hefei, capital of the eastern province of Anhui and where property price rises have been among the fastest, has raised downpayment requirements on second homes and tightened mortgage policies from this month, Chinese media have reported.

Year-on-year, new home prices in China were up 11.18 percent last month, compared with 10.34 percent in May, the CIA said.

Entrenched by a slowing property market, a sluggish manufacturing sector and mounting debt, China's economy grew only 6.9 percent in 2015, its weakest rate in a quarter of a century, and concerns about its slowdown have roiled global markets.

Activity in Chinese factories suffered its sharpest deterioration for four months in June, figures showed Friday, as weak demand and industrial overcapacity weighed on the world's second-largest economy.

The figures are the latest to highlight a long-running growth slowdown in the country as the global outlook weakens.

The private Caixin Purchasing Mangers' Index of manufacturing activity came in at 48.6 in June, down from 49.2 in May, the Chinese financial magazine said in a joint statement with data compiler Markit. It was also well off the median forecast of 49.2 in a Bloomberg News poll.

A reading above 50 signals expanding activity, while anything below indicates shrinkage.

Investors watch the figure closely as the first available indicator each month of the health of the economy.

Manufacturers shed jobs for the 32nd straight month, Caixin said, as they sought to cut costs in the face of a drop in new work.

Overall economic conditions in the second quarter were "considerably weaker" than in the first quarter, Caixin's Zhong Zhengsheng said.

"Against the backdrop of a turbulent external environment, and in order to avert a sharp economic decline, the government must strengthen its proactive fiscal policy while continuing to follow prudent monetary policy."

China is a vital driver of global expansion, but its economy grew only 6.9 percent last year, its weakest rate in a quarter of a century.

The key manufacturing sector has been struggling for months in the face of sagging global demand for Chinese products and excess industrial capacity left over from the country's infrastructure boom.

- Brexit risk -

But the official Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) -- which focuses on larger firms than the Caixin survey -- painted a slightly more positive picture, with data for June coming in at the breakeven point of 50.0, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The figure was slightly down from the previous two months, but matched economists' median expectations of 50.0 in a survey by Bloomberg News.

"It is noteworthy that the current domestic market demand remained weak and real economy momentum was still insufficient," Zhao Qinge, analyst for the National Bureau of Statistics, said in a note.

"Due to the impact of slumping global economic growth, US interest rate expectations, US and European trade protection measures, and Brexit, recently the manufacturing trend has been weak."

Some traditional industries dropped significantly, the NBS said, as the index for activity in highly energy-intensive factories fell 0.9 points to 48.2.

Larger firms, which tend to be state-owned, showed increased activity with a June PMI of 51.0, while activity in medium- and small-scale firms contracted, the NBS said.

The data suggested China was "unlikely" to achieve growth of 6.7 percent in the second quarter and the government would support growth with spending, analysts with ANZ said in a note.

"Brexit presents a new risk to China's external demand and challenges China's manufacturing sector in H2 2016. To react, we believe that the government will stimulate the economy by hastening infrastructure investment and urbanisation."

While manufacturing disappointed, China's growing non-manufacturing sector showed health, Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a note, pointing to a pick-up in the construction sector fuelled by state spending and property demand.

"Conditions in manufacturing appear to have deteriorated but the rest of the economy, which is less reliant on foreign demand, appears to be doing better."

Beijing has said it wants to reorient the economy away from relying on debt-fuelled investment spending to boost growth and towards a consumer-driven model, but the transition has proven challenging.

Investors shrugged at the results, with Shanghai stocks up slightly by the break.


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