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by Staff Writers Shanghai (AFP) May 2, 2012
Manufacturing activity in China contracted for the sixth straight month in April but at a much slower pace, banking giant HSBC said Wednesday, lifting hopes the giant economy may have turned a corner. HSBC's purchasing managers index (PMI) came in a 49.3 in April, up from 48.3 in March, HSBC said in a statement. A reading below 50 indicates contraction, while anything above 50 points to expansion. The figure is also higher than the preliminary 49.1 announced by the bank on April 23. It comes a day after official PMI data showed manufacturing activity at its highest level in 13 months in April, lifting hopes that Asia's biggest economy is picking up after a recent lull. "As easing measures are starting to work and additional easing measures are on the way... we expect Chinese GDP growth to bottom out in (the second quarter) and recover modestly," HSBC's chief economist for China, Qu Hongbin, said in the statement. He forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth of more than 8.5 percent for the second half of the year. China's economy grew 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012, its slowest pace in nearly three years. Beijing has already cut bank reserve requirements twice since December as policymakers aim to boost lending to spur growth. Analysts widely expect the government to further loosen monetary policy as it looks to kickstart growth. HSBC's PMI figures are typically more pessimistic than China's official numbers, which on Tuesday showed activity at its highest since March last year. Official PMI hit 53.3 in April, the fifth consecutive month of expansion, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said Tuesday. Analysts say the HSBC survey puts greater emphasis on small firms, which have suffered more in the current economic slowdown than state-owned giants. "Both the HSBC and the official PMI readings showed there was an improvement in April and China's economic growth is further stabilising," Liao Qun, chief China economist for Citic Bank International, told AFP. "China will continue to moderately loosen its monetary policy this year in a gradual manner, mainly through cuts in banks' reserve requirements," he said. Analysts have fretted recently that China's economy was headed for a hard landing as Europe's sovereign debt crisis and the weak US economy hit exports, a key driver of growth.
The Economy
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