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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China manufacturing at 28-month low: HSBC
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) July 21, 2011

Manufacturing activity in China contracted for the first time in a year in July to hit a 28-month low, early HSBC data showed Thursday, the latest sign monetary tightening measures are being felt.

However, the figures also indicated that despite several interest rate hikes aimed at tempering stubbornly high inflation the cost of raw materials continued to rise.

HSBC's preliminary purchasing managers index fell to 48.9 in July from a final reading of 50.1 in June, the British banking giant said.

A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The July reading, which is subject to revision when the bank publishes its final figures on August 1, was the lowest since March 2009 and fell below 50 for the first time since July 2010.

"We expect industrial growth to decelerate in the coming months as tightening measures continue to filter through," HSBC chief economist Qu Hongbin said in a statement.

Qu said the world's second-largest economy is still likely to grow nearly nine percent in the rest of the year, supported by resilient consumer spending and continued massive investment in infrastructure projects.

The contraction in July may be partly due to seasonal factors such as a regular decline in orders during the summer months as foreign customers go on holiday, Yao Wei, a Hong Kong-based economist with Societe Generale, told AFP.

It also showed that many small and medium-sized firms, which the HSBC survey focuses on, had been hit hard by tighter credit conditions as Beijing stepped up measures to curb bank lending, she said.

But what will likely worry policymakers is data showing input prices, including costs of raw materials and fuels, rose at a faster rate in July than the previous month, indicating manufacturers remain under significant inflationary pressure.

Chinese officials have been pulling on a variety of levers to prevent the economy from overheating and rein in inflation -- which hit a three-year high of 6.4 percent in June -- amid fears high prices could trigger social unrest.

In a bid to stop money flooding the system Beijing has increased the amount banks must hold in reserve several times -- which cut lending 10 percent in the first half of 2011 -- while interest rates have risen five times since October.

Economic growth slowed to 9.5 percent in the second quarter from 9.7 percent in the first three months of the year and 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Manufacturing accounts for nearly 50 percent of China's economy so a contraction in the sector will impact overall growth, Yao said.

But authorities were unlikely to scrap tightening measures as the slowdown, was tolerable so far, she added.




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China inflation to ease in 2010 second half: IMF
Washington (AFP) July 20, 2011 - The International Monetary Fund said Wednesday that Chinese inflation should slow in the coming months after it picked up to a troubling 6.4 percent rate in June.

The pressures which forced prices upward fuelling social and political worries are now dissipating and government policy measures are "having an impact," the IMF said in a new report on the Chinese economy.

"Inflation has certainly become more of a social concern," IMF China mission chief Nigel Chalk said in a briefing for reporters on the report.

"But our view is inflation is close to peaking in the next month or two, and we believe that by the end of this year inflation will start moving onto a downward trend."

The IMF forecast inflation will be running at 4.0 percent by the end of the year, but that GDP growth will continue at a fast 9.5 percent pace through this year and next.

"We continue to see China as a bright spot in global growth," Chalk said, while warning that the country's undervalued currency remains a barrier to much-needed financial sector reforms.

The Fund's report said that it did not see a dangerous nationwide property bubble -- though there were bubble-like conditions in certain metropolitan areas like Shenzhen.

But it added that, despite some effective government interventions to cool property price rises, the conditions remained for a dangerous bubble to materialize

"As as long as the cost of financing is low and other investment options are sparse, the propensity for property bubbles will remain," it said.





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POLITICAL ECONOMY
More Chinese cities see home prices fall in June
Beijing (AFP) July 18, 2011
More Chinese cities saw prices of new homes fall in June compared with the previous month, official data showed Monday, as Beijing vowed to step up efforts to cool its real estate market. The cost of new apartments in 12 out of 70 Chinese cities tracked by the National Bureau of Statistics fell, compared with nine cities in May, the NBS said in a statement. New home prices increased in 4 ... read more


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