The fourth survey of nearly 70 experts found a sharp drop in confidence from last year, when nearly half of respondents thought carbon dioxide emissions had already peaked or would do so in 2025.
Instead, while most said China would peak emissions by its 2030 target, 71 percent now believe that will happen between 2026 and 2030, with most expecting it in 2028.
The shift comes after China issued its first numerical emissions reductions targets this year, pledging to cut greenhouse gases by 7-10 percent within a decade.
But it failed to set a baseline year from which to make those cuts, fueling uncertainty about when its emissions might peak.
As the world's biggest emitter of planet-warming greenhouse gases, China's climate ambitions are closely watched, and there had been hope it might already have reached a peak in carbon dioxide emissions.
Nearly 20 percent of respondents still believe that peak has been reached, but for most "expectations for the exact timing of peak emissions have shifted to slightly later", the research found.
The survey by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clear Air and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies has been carried out for four years.
A peak in China's emissions would mean the amount of greenhouse gases produced by the world's biggest emitter is no long increasing.
But whether and how quickly the figure declines will also be key.
China this week submitted its official climate roadmap with new 2035 goals, including emissions cuts.
Most analysts view the 7-10 percent pledge as unambitious, with more than half surveyed saying they expect the goal to be met and slightly exceeded.
The survey comes shortly before the annual COP climate talks open in Brazil, with several major emitters yet to submit their 2035 roadmaps.
Biggest emitter, record renewables: China's climate scorecard
Bangkok (AFP) Nov 4, 2025 -
China is the world's biggest emitter of planet-warning greenhouse gases but is also installing more renewable energy sources and putting more electric vehicles on its roads than any other country.
Ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil, here is a look at China's climate commitments:
- Emissions -
China emits over 30 percent of global greenhouse gases -- an estimated 15.6 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2024, according to the latest UN figures.
Both its total historical emissions and its emissions per capita are still below those of the United States, but are catching up fast.
Coal, a major source of pollution, accounted for nearly 60 percent of Chinese power generation last year, though massive installations of renewable energy are helping meet new electricity demand.
It is also a leader in the electric vehicle market, accounting for over 70 percent of global production. Almost half of new cars in China were electric battery-powered or plug-in hybrids in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency.
- Reduction targets -
In September, China announced its first numerical greenhouse gas reduction targets, pledging to slash emissions by 7-10 percent by 2035.
But it did not set a baseline year from which to measure those reductions and experts say China needs to cut emissions by closer to 30 percent from 2023 levels to keep global temperatures from rising over 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
There is hope however that China will "underpromise but overachieve" as it has with some previous targets, including on renewable energy.
Beijing had previously committed to a peak in emissions by 2030 and to achieve net-zero carbon status three decades later.
Some analysts believe emissions have already peaked or are close to doing so thanks to the rising use of renewables and nuclear power.
- Renewable goals -
China's official climate roadmap this week confirmed President Xi Jinping's September target announcements.
The plan was welcomed by UN climate chief Simon Stiell as "a significant moment in our collective climate effort."
It includes new targets for renewables, including increasing solar and wind power capacity by six times their 2020 levels to 3,600 gigawatts (GW) by 2035.
China said earlier this year it currently has 1,482 GW of wind and solar capacity.
Reaching Beijing's new goal would require installing around 200GW of wind and solar capacity a year, far less than China added in 2024.
Though renewable energy growth could slow, analysts widely view China as likely to hit and possibly exceed its 2035 target early.
- Fossil fuels, EVs -
China wants to raise the share of non-fossil fuels in its total energy consumption to over 30 percent by 2035.
That too is considered an achievable and unambitious pledge given recent forecasts already project that figure will hit 36 percent in a decade.
The Chinese president also promised to ensure "new energy vehicles", which include electric vehicles (EVs), become the "mainstream" in new sales.
That is arguably already the case given EVs make up over 40 percent of new purchases.
- Emissions trading, forest cover -
China's new commitments include a pledge to expand its carbon emissions trading scheme to cover all high-emission sectors.
The scheme is already in the process of expanding from the power sector to cover heavy industry including cement, steel and aluminum, and officials have signalled plans to apply it to even more sectors.
Beijing's 2035 pledge also targets forest cover of 24 billion cubic metres, up from 20 billion currently, according to official figures.
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