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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China May industrial output up 6.1% year-on-year: govt
By Kelly OLSEN
Beijing (AFP) June 11, 2015


China bank lending, money supply grew in May: central bank
Shanghai (AFP) June 11, 2015 - China's bank lending expanded in May and the broader money supply also grew, the central bank said Thursday, in a sign its efforts to loosen policy to boost growth are bearing fruit.

Domestic banks extended new loans of 900.8 billion yuan ($147.3 billion), up from 707.9 billion yuan in April, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) said in a statement.

Total social financing -- a broader measure of credit in the economy -- reached 1.22 trillion yuan in May, it said, up from 1.05 trillion yuan in April.

Social financing, also known as aggregate financing, beat the median forecast of 1.13 trillion yuan based on a survey of economists by Bloomberg News.

China's central bank has already cut interest rates three times since November and twice lowered the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve to help pump up the slowing economy.

The country's economy expanded 7.0 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, slumping to a post global financial crisis low, even as Beijing took steps to bolster growth.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.4 percent in 2014, the slowest pace in 24 years, and the government has cut the annual growth target for 2015 to "approximately" seven percent.

But after a slew of weak inflation and trade data this week, analysts said more easing was likely on the way -- possibly as early as this month.

"Generally, the financial figures improved in May," China Merchants Bank analyst Liu Dongliang said in a research note.

But he added: "It is necessary for the central bank to continuously cut interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio. The latest reserve cut could be seen as early as June."

Growth in China's industrial production hit a three-month high in May, figures showed Thursday, while expansion in retail sales rebounded from a nine-year low in cautiously positive signs for the world's second-largest economy.

Industrial output, which measures output at factories, workshops and mines, rose 6.1 percent year-on-year in May, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement.

Retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, increased 10.1 percent in the same month, the NBS said.

The industrial output figure was the highest since a reading of 6.8 percent growth in January-February, when the data were released for two months to iron out distortions related to Chinese New Year.

The May increase was also above the 5.9 percent recorded in April and marginally above the median 6.0 percent rise in a forecast of economists by Bloomberg News.

The retail sales result, meanwhile, was just above April's 10.0 percent rise, which was a nine-year low.

"The data suggest that although activity remains subdued, recent policy support is now helping to stabilise growth," Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note, referring to measures including central bank interest rate cuts.

The results came as China's economy has continued to slow in 2015 after growing at its weakest pace -- 7.4 percent -- in nearly a quarter-century last year.

In the first three months of this year, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.0 percent, the worst quarterly result in six years.

China's authorities are trying to engineer a controlled slowdown as they seek to transform the country's growth model to one in which consumer spending becomes the key driver, as opposed to heavy infrastructure investment.

In a sign that the makeover is proceeding, the NBS also announced that growth in fixed asset investment -- a measure of government spending on infrastructure -- slowed further, expanding 11.4 percent year-on-year in the January-May period, the lowest since December 2000, according to previous figures.

Officials, however, fear too fast a deceleration in economic growth and have carried out stimulatory measures including lowering interest rates to help ensure the slowdown does not get out of hand.

The central People's Bank of China (PBoC) has cut benchmark interest rates three times since November and also implemented reductions in the amount of funds banks must keep on hand in a bid to encourage lending and help pump up economic growth.

Separately, the central bank said Thursday that China's bank lending expanded in May and the broader money supply also grew, a sign its efforts to loosen policy to boost growth are bearing fruit.

Domestic banks extended new loans of 900.8 billion yuan ($147.3 billion), up from 707.9 billion yuan in April, the PBoC said in a statement.

Total social financing -- a broader measure of credit in the economy -- reached 1.22 trillion yuan in May, it said, up from 1.05 trillion yuan in April.

Still, analysts are broadly expecting the PBoC to take further easing steps to boost the economy.

"As growth stabilises, the People's Bank of China may pause its monetary easing in June to evaluate the impact of the easing measures it has taken so far," Nomura economists said in a note.

"However, growth is still at a low level, with investment demand notably remaining weak."

China earlier this week announced weak trade data, with imports falling for a seventh straight month in May and exports also declining for a third consecutive month.

Economists Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao at ANZ took a more pessimistic view of Thursday's figures in the aftermath of the disappointing trade figures.

"In general, there is little improvement in China's activity data in May," they wrote in a reaction and suggested that GDP growth for the April-June quarter, due to be announced next month, may dip below the 7.0 percent recorded in the first three months of the year.

"It appears that the monetary easing so far has had limited impact on improving growth momentum," they wrote.

And NBS analyst Jiang Yuan said in a statement that the numbers should not be seen in too positive a light.

"Despite industrial output growth having picked up marginally over the past two months, domestic and external market demand for industrial products remained relatively weak, the basis for the recovery in industrial production was not consolidated and the downward pressure is still rather big," Jiang said.


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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China economy shows more weakness as imports, exports fall
Beijing (AFP) June 8, 2015
Chinese imports fell for a seventh straight month in May while exports also sank, according to official data Monday, as the world's second biggest economy shows protracted weakness despite government easing measures. The disappointing figures also come as leaders try to transform the economy to one where growth is driven by consumer spending rather than by government investment and exports. ... read more


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