In fact, the pro- and anti-base positions of Republicans and Democrats alike have a lot more to do with political posturing than hard policymaking. With a new, relatively pro-Russian government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk just having taken power in Poland, it is almost certain that the base will either never be built, or that the go-ahead for it will be postponed indefinitely.

Aerospace Daily and Defense Report noted Monday that leaders of both parties in the armed services committees of the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate met on Dec. 6 and agreed not to eliminate funding the for the proposed Polish base and its accompanying advanced radar array to be constructed in the neighboring Czech republic. Instead, they OK'd $225 million for initial construction work on both projects.

The total cost of both bases, if they were to be actually built, would probably be nearer $2 billion than $1.5 billion, given the continuing weakening of the dollar against the euro and other European currencies.

But in any case, as Aerospace Daily and Defense report noted, even initial work with the limited approved funding will have to await formal approval from both the Polish and Czech parliaments. And with the new Civic Alliance led by Tusk firmly in the saddle and just having taken power in Warsaw, Polish approval for the crucial base that will hold the 10 ABM interceptors to guard against some future Iranian attack against Western Europe and the United States appears extremely unlikely.

Poland's new foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, has already spoken warmly about Russian compromise proposals that would eliminate the Polish ABM base, and on Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed his warm welcome for Sikorski's remarks.

Congressional leaders at the Dec. 6 reconciliation conference on the defense appropriations bill also signed off on other hedges and qualifications about constructing the Polish BMD base. They agreed that a 45-day delay would be imposed after Congress was given an independent assessment about the BMD base plan that would include a discussion of possible different deployments of BMD defenses that could be made instead, Aerospace Daily and Defense Report said, citing Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and SASC staff members.

The biggest barrier, or delay, to building the base, may be in another condition included in the proposed legislation saying the Pentagon would have to confirm to Congress that the Ground-based Mid-course Interceptors, or GBIs, had already passed operational tests that proved "through successful, operationally realistic flight testing, (that they had) a high-probability of working in an effective manner," according to language in the legislation cited in the AD and DR report.

AD and DR said the Bush administration had originally asked for $310 million in seed money to start work on constructing the Polish and Czech bases but that the reconciliation conference cut more than 25 percent off that amount -- $85 million. However, Lt. Gen. Henry "Trey" Obering, director of the Missile Defense Agency, said that the funding cut should only slow down the program by half a year, Obering was still hoping for a deployment of the interceptors by 2013, the report said.

But that will be dependent, as we have noted, on Washington receiving the go-ahead from an increasingly reluctant Polish government, and on the decisions taken by the president and Congress to be elected 11 months from now in the United States.

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