Space Industry and Business News  
Antarctic Temperatures Disagree With Climate Model Predictions

"It's hard to see a global warming signal from the mainland of Antarctica right now," he said. "Part of the reason is that there is a lot of variability there. It's very hard in these polar latitudes to demonstrate a global warming signal. This is in marked contrast to the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula that is one of the most rapidly warming parts of the Earth."
by Staff Writers
Columbus OH (SPX) Feb 16, 2007
A new report on climate over the world's southernmost continent shows that temperatures during the late 20th century did not climb as had been predicted by many global climate models. This comes soon after the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that strongly supports the conclusion that the Earth's climate as a whole is warming, largely due to human activity.

It also follows a similar finding from last summer by the same research group that showed no increase in precipitation over Antarctica in the last 50 years. Most models predict that both precipitation and temperature will increase over Antarctica with a warming of the planet.

David Bromwich, professor of professor of atmospheric sciences in the Department of Geography, and researcher with the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State University, reported on this work at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science at San Francisco.

"It's hard to see a global warming signal from the mainland of Antarctica right now," he said. "Part of the reason is that there is a lot of variability there. It's very hard in these polar latitudes to demonstrate a global warming signal. This is in marked contrast to the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula that is one of the most rapidly warming parts of the Earth."

Bromwich says that the problem rises from several complications. The continent is vast, as large as the United States and Mexico combined. Only a small amount of detailed data is available - there are perhaps only 100 weather stations on that continent compared to the thousands spread across the U.S. and Europe . And the records that we have only date back a half-century.

"The best we can say right now is that the climate models are somewhat inconsistent with the evidence that we have for the last 50 years from continental Antarctica .

"We're looking for a small signal that represents the impact of human activity and it is hard to find it at the moment," he said.

Last year, Bromwich's research group reported in the journal Science that Antarctic snowfall hadn't increased in the last 50 years. "What we see now is that the temperature regime is broadly similar to what we saw before with snowfall. In the last decade or so, both have gone down," he said.

In addition to the new temperature records and earlier precipitation records, Bromwich's team also looked at the behavior of the circumpolar westerlies, the broad system of winds that surround the Antarctic continent.

"The westerlies have intensified over the last four decades of so, increasing in strength by as much as perhaps 10 to 20 percent," he said. "This is a huge amount of ocean north of Antarctica and we're only now understanding just how important the winds are for things like mixing in the Southern Ocean." The ocean mixing both dissipates heat and absorbs carbon dioxide, one of the key greenhouse gases linked to global warming.

Some researchers are suggesting that the strengthening of the westerlies may be playing a role in the collapse of ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula.

"The peninsula is the most northern point of Antarctica and it sticks out into the westerlies," Bromwich says. "If there is an increase in the westerly winds, it will have a warming impact on that part of the continent, thus helping to break up the ice shelves, he said.

"Farther south, the impact would be modest, or even non-existent."

Bromwich said that the increase in the ozone hole above the central Antarctic continent may also be affecting temperatures on the mainland. "If you have less ozone, there's less absorption of the ultraviolet light and the stratosphere doesn't warm as much."

That would mean that winter-like conditions would remain later in the spring than normal, lowering temperatures.

"In some sense, we might have competing effects going on in Antarctica where there is low-level CO2 warming but that may be swamped by the effects of ozone depletion," he said. "The year 2006 was the all-time maximum for ozone depletion over the Antarctic."

Bromwich said the disagreement between climate model predictions and the snowfall and temperature records doesn't necessarily mean that the models are wrong.

"It isn't surprising that these models are not doing as well in these remote parts of the world. These are global models and shouldn't be expected to be equally exact for all locations," he said.

Related Links
Ohio State University
Beyond the Ice Age
Learn about Climate Science at TerraDaily.com
Beyond the Ice Age



Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News


Glaciers Not On Simple Upward Trend Of Melting
Boulder CO (SPX) Feb 13, 2007
Two of Greenland's largest glaciers shrank dramatically and dumped twice as much ice into the sea during a period of less than a year between 2004 and 2005. And then, less than two years later, they returned to near their previous rates of discharge.







  • Hong Kong Internet Access Fully Restored
  • New Damage And Bad Weather Delay Asian Internet Repairs
  • Asia Turns To Time-Tested Solution For Damaged Internet Cables
  • Chinese Web Could Remain Slow Until Late January

  • THEMIS Launch Delayed To Friday
  • THEMIS Launch Now Set for Feb 16
  • Research Rocket Launches From Poker Flat Through Pulsating Aurora
  • Six Aurora-Research Rockets To Launch From Poker Flat

  • Superjet To Be Tested For Strength
  • Anger As Britons Face Air Tax Hike
  • Bats In Flight Reveal Unexpected Aerodynamics
  • Lockheed Martin And Boeing Form Strategic Alliance To Promote Next-Gen Air Transportation System

  • Interim Polar System Reaches Full Operational Capability
  • Raytheon Demonstrates Satellite Communications Alternative
  • Northrop Grumman Delivers Payload For First Advanced EHF Military Communications Satellite
  • Defense Support Program Flight 23 Sees Integration Of Satellite And Launch Vehicle Payload Adapter

  • Lockheed Martin Upgrade To Extend Life Of Romanian Radars 15 To 20 Years
  • SpaceDev Starsys Division Tests System For General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems
  • In Tiny Supercooled Clouds Physicists Exchange Light And Matter
  • Liquid Crystals Stabilised

  • Alan Stern Appointed To Lead Science Mission Directorate
  • Former Space Agency Chief May Head RSC Energia
  • Northrop Grumman Names Teri Marconi VP Of Combat Avionics For Electronic Systems
  • Northrop Grumman Appoints Joseph Ensor Vice President Of Surveillance And Remote Sensing

  • Gascom To Launch 4 Smotr Low-Orbit Remote Sensing Satellites
  • GeoEye Makes Final Debt Payment For The Purchase Of Space Imaging
  • Google Earth To Blur Key India Sites
  • Brazilian Satellite Undergoes Environmental Tests

  • GPS Upgrade Will Require Complicated Choreography
  • China Puts New Navigation Satellite Into Orbit
  • GMV Signs Galileo Contracts Worth Over 40 Million Euros
  • Port Of Rotterdam To Use SAVI Networks Savitrak For Cargo Security And Management Service

  • The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright Space.TV Corporation. AFP and UPI Wire Stories are copyright Agence France-Presse and United Press International. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space.TV Corp on any Web page published or hosted by Space.TV Corp. Privacy Statement