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Ancient tsunamis may explain prehistoric mass graves
by Brooks Hays
(UPI) Aug 15, 2018

Sea level to increase risk of deadly tsunamis
(UPI) Aug 15, 2018 - New research suggests sea level rise caused by manmade global warming is likely to increase the risk of devastating tsunamis.

Just 12 inches of sea level, scientists at Virginia Tech found, would put coastal communities in greater danger.

Climate change isn't altering the planet's tectonics, so tsunami-generating earthquakes aren't likely to become more frequent. But rising global temperatures are melting Earth's glaciers, accelerating sea level rise, which amplifies the impact of extreme flooding events.

When Virginia Tech researchers ran simulations to measure the risk of tsunami-caused flooding, they found sea level rise had a surprisingly large effect.

"Our research shows that sea-level rise can significantly increase the tsunami hazard, which means that smaller tsunamis in the future can have the same adverse impacts as big tsunamis would today," geoscientist Robert Weiss said in a news release.

Scientists looked specifically at how rising sea levels would put Macau in danger. Next to Macau lies the South China Sea, home to Manila Trench, a megathrust system that shares many of the characteristics found in the fault systems that produced the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 2011 earthquake in northern Japan.

Tsunamis are fairly common, but most don't have significant impacts. Should sea levels rise 1.5 feet, however, the models suggest the likelihood of tsunami-related flooding in Macau would double. The risk would quadruple if sea levels the South China Sea rise three feet.

"The South China Sea is an excellent starting point for such a study because it is an ocean with rapid sea-level rise and also the location of many mega cities with significant worldwide consequences if impacted. The study is the first if its kind on the level of detail, and many will follow our example," Weiss said.

Researchers published their risk assessment this week in the journal Science Advances.

The study's authors said their findings are a reminder that sea level rise's impact on risk assessments.

"We need to study local sea-level change more comprehensively in order to create better predictive models that help to make investments in infrastructure that are or near sustainable," Weiss said.

Ancient tsunamis could explain a handful of prehistorical mass graves in the Pacific, Mediterranean and northern Scotland.

Researchers at the University of New South Wales were first inspired to search for evidence of ancient tsunamis after observing the aftermath of recent disasters.

"Basically, when you look at recent events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami you see that there is a dire need for rapid burials when survivors are overwhelmed with the number of dead," archaeologist James Goff told UPI. "So it was a very simple question: What about ones in prehistory? Surely they faced the same problems, even more so given their lack of aid coming in. So where are the mass burials?"

Goff and his colleagues went looking for evidence tsunami-relatied mass casualties in the archaeological record. They identified several mass grave sites on the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu in the Pacific, as well as on Orkney and Shetland in the Northern Isles of Scotland. The burial sites ranged from 5,000 to 500 years old.

For each site, scientists looked for geological and climatic evidence of tsunamis. For several sites, scientists showed tsunamis offered a better explanation for mass graves than traditional explanations like epidemics and warfare.

"The Pacific ones are most convincing," Goff said. "They are in areas known to have been affected by large palaeotsunamis, they date to the correct age, and there are lots of skeletons buried in a not particularly structured manner."

"So you have mass burials that are somewhat chaotic dated to the time of known palaeotsunamis - the question is therefore -- why not consider a tsunami caused the deaths?"

There are more coastal burial sites to be analyzed, and Goff and his colleagues hope other researchers will take a cue from their work and consider the possibility of a tsunami the next time they find human remains buried in haste.

Of course, not every mass grave was caused by a tsunami. Far from it. But researchers say the possibility should at least be considered.

Just as tribal violence often reveals itself in the form of severe fractures, tsunamis leave their mark on humans remains. When humans drown, they inhale sea water. Micro-organisms called diatoms, living in the water, are swallowed and absorbed into the bloodstream.

"Look for marine microfossils in the bone marrow," Goff said. "It is a tried and tested technique in forensic science and is a great new tool to add to the toolkit of analysis used by archaeologists."

Researchers detailed their analysis of tsunami-related burial sites in the Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory.


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SHAKE AND BLOW
How large can a tsunami be in the Caribbean
Miami FL (SPX) May 17, 2018
The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami has researchers reevaluating whether a magnitude 9.0 megathrust earthquake and resulting tsunami might also be a likely risk for the Caribbean region, seismologists reported at the SSA 2018 Annual Meeting. "Before 2004, we thought an earthquake of about 8.0 was about right for the largest we might see in the Caribbean, based on the history of earthquakes there and the length and motion of the faults," said Christa von Hillebrandt-Andrade of the National Oceanic and At ... read more

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