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Analysts say Pakistan facing worst crisis in history

by Staff Writers
Islamabad (AFP) Dec 28, 2007
Pakistan faces the worst crisis in its modern history after the killing of Benazir Bhutto, an attack aimed at destabilising the nuclear-armed Islamic nation and wrecking planned elections, analysts said.

The country is on the edge of mass unrest following Bhutto's assassination on Thursday, with more than 20 people dying in riots and political violence sparked by her death in a gun and suicide bomb attack.

Analysts said President Pervez Musharraf would have to reach out to opponents who have held him responsible for, at the very least, failing to protect Bhutto -- or face an end to his eight year-rule.

With elections due in less than two weeks intended to be a pivotal step on the road to democracy, the turmoil is posing the biggest challenge to Pakistan since Bangladesh split off from Pakistan more than 35 years ago.

"We are heading towards a very uncertain phase of politics which has the potential to plunge the country into a state of anarchy," Hasan Askari, former head of political science at Lahore's Punjab University, told AFP.

"The distrust between Musharraf and the opposition is such that some elements in the opposition have already called for his resignation -- therefore there is little prospect at this stage for a recovery."

He added: "If the present crisis continues, Musharraf's own future could be jeopardised."

The government has pointed the finger at Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda network for killing Bhutto, noting she was a vocal opponent of Islamic militancy and a perceived friend of the West.

But her party, as well as other opposition figures, have said Musharraf's government failed to protect her from the threat. Some have even implicated Musharraf's own intelligence services.

Either way, Musharraf's apparent inability to stop the bloodshed that has plagued Pakistan this year will count against him in the eyes of the public, analysts said.

Musharraf and his allies are already struggling ahead of elections due on January 8.

Pakistan's interim premier said Thursday there were no immediate plans to cancel the polls, but analysts were doubtful the vote could go ahead.

"The credibility of the government in bringing the country back to normalcy is falling by the hour," said Rasul Baksh Rais, a political scientist at Lahore University of Management Sciences.

"What happened after the tragic assassination of Bhutto is symptomatic of the pent-up social anger and frustration in the country," Rais said.

Musharraf -- who spent much of this year battling to secure his re-election as president in October despite slumping popularity -- now looks set to dig in his heels.

"Pakistan may plunge into still greater uncertainty and chaos if the Musharraf regime continues to fail in reaching out to all the political forces in the country in setting an agenda for genuine change," Rais said.

A Western diplomat said the situation was "not yet catastrophic" but that much depended on the ability of Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) to calm its members and legions of supporters.

"However it is also in the interest of the PPP leadership to let the situation worsen for a few days, so that they have a means of pressuring the Musharraf camp," the diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

"If the PPP and Musharraf do not agree on something very soon, and they don't talk to the PPP members on the streets, then the situation will worsen."

But some analysts did sound a note of hope, saying Bhutto could effectively become a martyr to the democratic cause that she championed.

"In her death she may be able to achieve her goal in life, to put the country on the road to democracy," said analyst and retired army general Talat Masood.

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Commentary: Pakistani suspects galore
Washington (UPI) Dec 27, 2007
Suspects in the assassination of Pakistan's Benazir Bhutto number in the tens of thousands. Some 800 Pakistanis have been killed by suicide bombers in the past year. Bhutto had a close brush with death Oct. 18, a few hours after returning from eight years of self-imposed exile in Dubai and London. The suicide bomber killed more than 140 people and injured 350, some a few feet from where she was sitting in a large vehicle.







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