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Analysts disagree on threat to Pakistan nuclear arsenal

by Staff Writers
London (AFP) Dec 28, 2007
Experts in Britain disagreed Friday on how likely it was that extremists could get their hands on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

Some analysts have raised fears that instability following Bhutto's killing Thursday could lead to unrest which would open the door for weapons to fall into the wrong hands.

Professor Paul Wilkinson, chairman of Saint Andrews University's Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, said that Western nations "really ought to be concerned" about this "nightmare scenario".

"We could have a situation where extremists were able to control the nuclear facilities of Pakistan," he said.

"That would be a very dangerous, nightmare scenario and one that we really ought to be concerned about."

But Christian Le Miere, managing editor of Jane's security journal Country Risk, said that Pakistan's nuclear capacity "remains strongly in the hands of the military".

He suggested that Bhutto's death would not seriously affect this.

"The issue is cash -- if a scientist or...a group of scientists decide that their income is too low, they could go on the black market to offer material, that's the main danger," he said.

"They have still scientists out there that could pass information to the black market or hand over nuclear material to a state, in order to supplement their income."

He predicted that the military would step up security around facilities in the wake of Bhutto's death.

The former prime minister was killed in Rawalpindi and was buried alongside her father in southern Pakistan on Friday.

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Commentary: Pakistani suspects galore
Washington (UPI) Dec 27, 2007
Suspects in the assassination of Pakistan's Benazir Bhutto number in the tens of thousands. Some 800 Pakistanis have been killed by suicide bombers in the past year. Bhutto had a close brush with death Oct. 18, a few hours after returning from eight years of self-imposed exile in Dubai and London. The suicide bomber killed more than 140 people and injured 350, some a few feet from where she was sitting in a large vehicle.







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