International energy companies "can work in even the riskiest of environments as long as sufficient profits can be had and their contracts remain stable -- and IOCs (international oil companies) operating in Myanmar have already shown that they are capable of working through periods of instability in the country," said Terry Hallmark, director of political risk and policy assessment at IHS, a global energy expert firm.

As of U.N. Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari's briefing to the Security Council Friday, the unrest in Myanmar had resulted in at least 2,000 detentions, "several dozens" wounded and "up to a dozen" deaths, according to what Gambari said were Myanmarese government figures.

The tensions in Myanmar have also provoked a flurry of finger-pointing as the international community struggles to find an actor with both the will and the leverage to force the junta to reform. Regional players such as China and India have been blamed for limiting themselves to what some see as half-hearted rebukes of the regime. And the United Nations has produced few tangible results, despite Gambari's four-day trip to meet with the junta's leaders last week.

"It remains unclear how responsive the authorities will be," said Gambari during his briefing Friday.

The search for an effective leader has extended to international energy companies, given the regime's reliance on revenue from Myanmar's substantial energy resources.

According to Human Rights Watch, sales of natural gas are the junta's largest single source of revenue. And the U.S. State Department estimates that natural gas contributed to 30 percent of Myanmar's total exports between 2005 and 2006.

"Companies doing business in Burma argue their presence is constructive and will benefit the Burmese people, but they have yet to condemn the government's abuses against its own citizens," Arvind Ganesan, director of the Business and Human Rights Program at Human Rights Watch, said in a news release on the agency's Web site Tuesday.

"If the situation does not improve, companies should be prepared to reconsider their operations in the country," the statement said.

According to Human Rights Watch, companies from Australia, the British Virgin Islands, China, France, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Russia and the United States have investments in Myanmar's oil and gas industries.

Foreign direct investment in these sectors totaled $69 million between 2005 and 2006, according to the U.S. State Department.

Yet despite humanitarian concerns, Myanmar's faltering stability -- which the Eurasia Group classifies as "very low," leaving Myanmar in the same category as Iraq and Afghanistan -- has not seemed to dampen the business climate thus far.

"For the time being," said Hallmark, "it is unlikely that IOCs will see Myanmar as a liability because of political instability or risk. Chevron, Total, the three state-owned Chinese companies, Malaysia's Petronas, Thailand state-company PTT-EP and others are currently working in Myanmar and show no signs of leaving."

According to a Eurasia Group Note published Monday, indications from Piyasvasti Amranand, Thailand's energy minister, that unrest in Myanmar had disrupted negotiations for future upstream developments were misleading. "This is solely a logistical issue," stated the Eurasia Group, "(PTT's negotiators have in fact been evacuated from the country) and PTT expects that negotiations will resume once the political situation in Burma has normalized."

It is also unclear whether pressure from international energy companies would affect the regime in the way activists envision.

"Near term, international businesses have little effect on domestic politics. The regime will close off the country if need be to maintain control," said Roberto Herrera-Lim, an Asia analyst at the Eurasia Group.

If unrest persists, however, this could change.

"Longer term the economy needs foreign money (debt or investment) and the current situation, if it leads to sanctions or concerted international effort to isolate the regime, will hurt the generals," said Herrera-Lim. "This is probably what the generals fear most," he added, "the disruption of trade, investment and loans that has funded its existence."

Likewise, "longer term, there is the possibility that enough international pressure could be brought to bear that some of these companies re-examine their position -- as was the case with some IOCs pressured into relinquishing their interests in Sudan," said Hallmark.

Thus, whether the regime will face significant economic restraint may ultimately be a function of time. And whether the demonstrations will endure remains to be seen.

"By the time my mission ended, the streets were busier and activity seemed to be returning to normal," said Gambari on Friday. But, he added, "The demonstrations over the past few weeks are �� the expression of deep and widespread discontent."

The regime "is trying to hunker down and get through this," said Michael Green, a senior fellow with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, during a Council on Foreign Relations conference call last week. They are "trying to prove to the world they're impervious to this pressure, both internally and externally. But you can also, looking at recent history, see that when authoritarian regimes finally go too far and push their people into the streets �� these �� revolutions can quickly change a regime."

(e-mail: [email protected])

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