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Analysis: Iran, Russia: Friends or rivals?

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by John C.K. Daly
Washington (UPI) Feb 18, 2008
On the surface, Iran and Russia share many common goals, not the least of which is squeezing the United States as far as possible out of exploiting the developing energy reserves of the Caspian. Amid the West's hand-wringing over Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor, it is Russian technicians who are finishing the facility and Russian companies supplying the nuclear fuel, much to Washington's annoyance.

Ten years ago, American oilmen had no doubt who was the villain of the piece, stymieing their access to the Caspian's riches, and it wasn't Moscow. Speaking at the Cato Institute on June 23, 1998, Vice President Dick Cheney, at the time head of the Halliburton Co., told his audience, " �� the Caspian Sea area �� is a region rich in oil and gas. Unfortunately, Iran is sitting right in the middle of the area and the United States has declared unilateral economic sanctions against that country.

"As a result, American firms are prohibited from dealing with Iran and find themselves cut out of the action, both in terms of opportunities that develop with respect to Iran itself, and also with respect to our ability to gain access to Caspian resources. Iran is not punished by this decision."

What a difference a decade makes. Now the Bush administration's ire is focused largely on the Kremlin, as Gazprom cuts deals with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan for their energy deposits. Further contributing to increased tensions is Moscow's fierce opposition to Ukraine joining NATO. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Feb. 13 labeled "reprehensible" Moscow's harsh rhetoric on the issue.

On the issue of Russia's exploitation of neighboring countries' energy reserves, in case the Kremlin was in any doubt about the Bush administration's intentions, Rice also said she will appoint a special envoy for energy issues to deal with the use of oil and gas for political means, particularly in Central Asia.

Help may be on the way for the beleaguered U.S. oilmen from an unlikely source -- "axis of evil" charter member Iran. With theocracy taking a back seat to profit, in a move sure to infuriate Russia, on Feb. 9 Iranian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Nasir Gamidi Zare told a news conference in Baku that Iran was considering participating in building the White Stream natural gas pipeline bypassing Russia. Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko supports the White Stream gas project, which envisions supplying natural gas to Ukraine from Central Asia through pipelines underneath the Caspian and Black Seas, bypassing existing pipelines transiting Russian territory.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia and Ukraine have been at loggerheads over the issue of Ukrainian pipelines versus Russian natural gas shipments to Kiev. In what has become an almost annual ritual, Moscow threatens to shut off natural gas shipments to Ukraine unless the country makes concessions and agrees to price increases, most recently last week. White Stream would remove a major Kremlin bargaining chip with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko's pro-American administration by removing Kiev from Moscow's hardball pipeline diplomacy tactics, which have also been deployed against Georgia and Belarus.

Adding insult to injury, Iran's interest in White Stream follows support for a Western natural gas project skirting Russian territory, the Nabucco project, which was publicly supported two weeks ago by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

The Iranian support expands Tymoshenko's options. She earlier had limited her vision to proposing a Black Sea underwater pipeline to carry Azeri and possibly Turkmen natural gas to Ukraine via Georgia, another restive former Soviet republic that has suffered from Gazprom's policies. The unexpected Iranian interest in White Steam has undoubtedly caused as much amazement and delight in Washington as it has elicited consternation in Moscow.

For the moment however, Iranian support for the project remains verbal, as Tehran's preference would simply be to upgrade existing facilities. Zare himself acknowledged as much, telling reporters, "There is no particular need for building new gas pipelines to Europe, since there is already the Iran-Turkey gas pipeline, along which Caspian gas may be delivered to Europe."

Iran has two goals in the Caspian energy wars. While it still shares a common interest with Russia in not seeing Western companies increase their footprint in the Caspian, it is perfectly willing to sell to Western consumers. A third priority is that Iran is interested in the delivery of hydrocarbons from the Caspian basin to Europe through its own territory in order to collect lucrative transit revenues, a goal that directly threatens Russia's current monopoly of Kazakh, Turkmen and Uzbek energy.

Of course, immense obstacles remain between the United States and Iran, not the least of which is a lack of diplomatic relations and Washington's sanctions. It will be fascinating to see, however, which team wins -- Russia and Iran versus U.S. hegemony; or Iran, the EU and the United States versus Russia's pipeline monopoly.

For Washington, the choice boils down to which regime it detests more -- Moscow or Tehran, but in an energy-hungry world, no one is betting on the ultimate outcome.

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All Iranian nuclear questions must be answered: France
Paris (AFP) Feb 14, 2008
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner told atomic watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei on Thursday that the six major powers expect Iran to answer all the outstanding questions over its nuclear programme.







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