The United States is optimistic about reaching a peace accord with the Taliban, but it still faces security challenges and the risk of militant threats based in Afghanistan, analysts say.

From the withdrawal of US troops to the disarming of insurgents, the path to peace after more than 18 years of war is strewn with difficulties.

The Taliban controlled the country when Al-Qaeda, based in the southern city of Kandahar, attacked the United States on September 11, 2001.

Another major attack on US interests by militants based in Afghanistan would be a major blow to US efforts to present its longest war as an overall victory.

President Donald Trump appears to be sharply aware of the risks, branding Afghanistan as "the Harvard of terrorists."

He has vowed to leave a strong US intelligence presence in the country to thwart attempts to use it again as a base for staging global attacks.

Under questioning by lawmakers Wednesday, General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged the risks even as he expressed support for a peace accord.

"I support signing a peace agreement with the Taliban, fully recognizing what the Taliban is all about," he said, adding sardonically, "I would not support sharing intelligence with them."

The accord with the Taliban, which will be signed Saturday in Doha, commits Washington to withdraw part of the 12,000 to 13,000 US troops by the end of the summer.

Initially, 8,600 will remain, and any further withdrawal will be linked to inter-Afghan political progress.

Military sources point to last year's pull-out of US troops from Syria as a model.

But a US withdrawal from Afghanistan would be a larger undertaking, and the military sources say it has to be gradual and discreet to protect forces on the ground.

The goal is to avoid making the remaining US military personnel a target for the Taliban or jihadists from Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State group, according to the military sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

But the situation could unravel if US forces withdraw before a political accord between the Taliban and the Afghan government is in place, warned Carter Malkasian, a former adviser to the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

- Trusting the Taliban -

"Once we leave, the Taliban could judge that the balance of forces has changed and that they now want to renege on the agreement," he warned during a recent conference at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Since the accord is based on Taliban security guarantees, the insurgents will have to keep their forces under control, added Michele Flournoy, a former under secretary of defense for policy.

There is always "the potential for spoilers on the Taliban side," she said.

The Soviet Union's humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 after 10 years of war underlines the historical dangers for the United States.

A further present-day complication is that the Afghan administration is in disarray, with President Ashraf Ghani declaring himself the winner of a new term in elections but his chief rival rejecting the results and vowing to form his own government.

The biggest challenge will be reintegrating Taliban fighters, many of whom have only ever known war, into Afghan society.

A lasting peace deal will "require that they amalgamate Taliban with the Afghan armed forces," James Dobbins, a former Afghanistan advisor in the Bush and Obama administrations, told AFP. "Those are not simple things to do."

In a recent report, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), John Sopko, stressed that reintegration of fighters "is a complex, long-term process, as old as war itself."

He warned that the US must fund a massive a reconstruction program in Afghanistan or 60,000 Taliban fighters "expecting a peace dividend, may return to violent and predatory behavior."

Afghanistan: nearly two decades of US intervention
Kabul (AFP) Feb 27, 2020 - The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, following the 9/11 terror attacks, targeted Al-Qaeda in the sanctuaries provided by the Taliban government of the time.

More than 18 years later, as Washington pushes to end America's longest war and sign a deal Saturday with the Taliban, here is a timeline of developments:

- 'War on terror' -

On October 7, 2001 -- less than a month after the September 11 attacks that killed around 3,000 people in the US -- President George W. Bush launches operation "Enduring Freedom" in Afghanistan.

The country's fundamentalist Taliban regime had been sheltering Osama bin Laden and his Al-Qaeda movement, which conducted the attacks.

The operation opens a military front in the US "war on terrorism".

Within weeks US-led forces overthrow the Taliban, in power since 1996.

Besides carrying out air strikes, Washington also lends support to the Afghan Northern Alliance fighting the Taliban, contributing paramilitary teams from the CIA and special forces.

About 1,000 American soldiers are on the ground by November 2001, rising to 10,000 the next year.

- Forgotten war -

US attention is diverted from Afghanistan when US forces invade Iraq in 2003 to oust dictator Saddam Hussein, accused of harbouring weapons of mass destruction.

The Taliban and other Islamist outfits regroup in their strongholds in southern and eastern Afghanistan, from where they can easily travel between their bases in Pakistan's tribal zones, and launch an insurgency.

In 2008 the US command in Afghanistan calls for more manpower. Bush sends additional soldiers and about 48,500 US troops are deployed.

- Peak of 100,000 troops -

In 2009 Barack Obama -- elected president on campaign promises to end the Iraq and Afghanistan wars -- boosts the US deployment to around 68,000. In December he sends another 30,000.

The objective is to stymie the growing Taliban insurgency and to strengthen Afghan institutions.

By 2010 more than 150,000 foreign soldiers are deployed in Afghanistan, of which 100,000 are American.

- Bin Laden killed -

Bin Laden is killed on May 2, 2011 in a US special forces operation in Pakistan.

- Combat operations end -

On December 31, 2014 the NATO alliance ends its combat mission in Afghanistan. But, under agreements reached a few months earlier, 12,500 foreign soldiers -- of which 9,800 are American -- remain to train Afghan troops and conduct anti-terrorist operations.

Security in Afghanistan degenerates as the Taliban's insurgency spreads, with the Islamic State (IS) group also becoming active in early 2015.

In July 2016 Obama slows the planned pace of withdrawal of US troops, saying 8,400 will remain into 2017.

- Mega bomb against IS -

In April 2017 the US military drops the largest non-nuclear bomb it has ever used in combat on an IS network of tunnels and caves in eastern Afghanistan. Afghan officials say it killed 96 jihadists.

- US reinforcements -

In August 2017 the new US President Donald Trump scraps any timetables for a US pullout and re-commits thousands more soldiers.

In mid-November some 3,000 soldiers arrive to reinforce the 11,000 troops already deployed.

However, deadly attacks multiply, especially against Afghan forces. The US steps up air strikes dramatically.

- Talks -

In mid-2018 Washington and Taliban representatives discreetly open talks in Doha, led by US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, focused on slashing the US military footprint in Afghanistan.

In return, the US demands that the Taliban prevent the country from being used as a safe haven for jihadist groups including Al-Qaeda.

But amid continued Taliban violence, Trump in September calls off talks, angered over the death of a US soldier in a Kabul bombing.

On December 7, negotiations are re-started in Doha, only to be paused again following a Taliban attack near Bagram air base outside Kabul.

During a surprise visit to Bagram on November 28, Trump had said he is ready to reduce troops below 8,600.

- 2020: Reduction in violence -

On February 13, the US announces it has secured a seven-day reduction in violence in Afghanistan that it hopes will pave the way for it to sign a deal with the Taliban in Doha on Saturday.

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