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Investigators want to know: Did Russian air defenses down Azerbaijan Airlines jet?
Investigators want to know: Did Russian air defenses down Azerbaijan Airlines jet?
by Mike Heuer
Washington DC (UPI) Dec 26, 2024

Increasing analysis suggests Russian air defenses might have downed Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243, which crashed in a ball of fire near Aktau,Kazakhstan on Wednesday morning, killing 38 of 67 passengers and crew.

Although the cause of the airliner's deadly crash is officially undetermined, many sources now are suggesting a Russian air-defense system downed the aircraft after it diverted its route because of weather conditions, CNN, Euronews and The Guardian reported.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has dispatched medical teams and investigators to the crash site in Aktau to help survivors and search for the cause.

"This is a great tragedy, a significant loss for the people of Azerbaijan," Aliyev said Wednesday afternoon.

"The reasons for the crash are not yet known to us," Aliyev said. "There are various theories, but I believe it is premature to discuss them. The matter must be thoroughly investigated."

He said the Azerbaijani Prosecutor General's Office has launched a criminal case into the matter and the public will be informed about the investigation and progress of the criminal case.

Aliyev was flying from Baku to St. Petersburg, Russia, on Wednesday to attend an informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States when he learned of the airliner's crash and ordered his plane to return to Baku.

Aliyev said the airliner was flying on the Baku-Grozny route when it changed course due to worsening weather conditions and flew toward Aktau airport. He said the crash occurred while the pilots attempted to land the aircraft.

The commercial aircraft departed the Azerbaijani capital of Baku at 7:55 a.m. local time and crashed at 10:28 a.m.

About 45 minutes prior to the crash, a Russian dispatcher informed a Kazakh control center the flight was diverted and its flight crew was having problems with its control systems, CNN reported.

The Russian dispatcher reported an oxygen tank exploded inside the passenger cabin and the pilots tried to land at the Aktau airport twice, Kazakhstan Minister of Transport Marat Karabayev told media.

The aircraft changed course, lost contact with Aktau airport dispatchers and crashed, Karabayev said.

The aircraft's control systems problem might have been caused by GPS jamming and spoofing while near Grozny, Flightradar24 said in a post on X.

GPS jamming can interfere with an aircraft's navigation and communications systems and cause safety risks, Flightradar24 officials said.

Video and data tracking suggest the aircraft had control issues, according to Flightradar24.

The flight from Baku to Grozny normally takes about an hour, but the Azerbaijani Airlines flight was airborne for 2 hours and 33 minutes when it crashed in Aktau.

The crash killed two pilots, a flight attendant and 35 passengers, while another 29 passengers were rescued after the crash.

Thirty-seven passengers were Azerbaijan citizens, 16 were Russian, six were from Kazakhstan, and three were from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan's transport ministry reported.

At least five of the surviving passengers were in serious but stable condition.

Video footage of the deadly crash shows what appears to be holes in the aircraft's fuselage, but their cause has not been determined.

The crash happened shortly after a Ukrainian drone strike hit parts of southern Russia.

Ukrainian drone strikes have closed many Russian airports, and the one located closest to the aircraft's flight path was closed Wednesday morning.

All four of Moscow's airports and another located 100 miles to the south of Russia's capital were closed Thursday morning for undisclosed security reasons.

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